786
FXUS64 KMAF 181910
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
210 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 209 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
- VERY DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND MONDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SURROUNDING PLAINS ALSO.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (10-30%)
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG
BEND, AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING SHOWS MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH INCHES ITS WAY CLOSER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING OUT SOME
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE 90S AND 100S (EXCEPT IN HIGHER
TERRAINS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW MIXING TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH SWINGS IN,
TRANSFERRING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS GUSTY WINDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. SOME
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OUT INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
AND THE PERMIAN BASIN, BRINGING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. BLOWING
DUST MAY RESULT FROM GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1-3 MILES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HOURS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS.
A DRYLINE WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND SHOULD SETUP
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA SIMULTANEOUSLY, WHICH COULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT). A FEW OF THESE
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH THIS
ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY AND DUSTY
CONDITIONS DURING PEAK MIXING. WINDS COULD GUST UP AROUND 40 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND LOWER HEIGHTS
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN AS MUCH AS 5-8 DEGREES FROM WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR TODAY.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
A RATHER BLEAK LONG TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR OUR REGION.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
NORMAL, OFFERING A BIT OF RELIEF FROM THE RECENT TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES START IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE CLIMBING
INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW AND STEADY CLIMB AFTER TUESDAY AS A
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GREAT
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED TO
START WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 60S TO LOWER 70S. EACH AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY HOT AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS EQUATES TO WIDESPREAD 90S AND LOWER
100S ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
APPEAR VERY LIMITED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OUR REGION BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, BUT SOME HOPE
ARRIVES WITH BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. THIS IS BROUGHT
ON BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS BROAD TROUGHING MAY BRING THE DRYLINE BACK WEST AND
ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR SUNSET. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL
OVERLAP WITH ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS, CREATING THIS HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER. WHILE LAST WEEK ERCS WERE LOW WITH NEAR NORMAL FUEL
MOISTURE, PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS CAUSING RAPID DRYING.
ERCS HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR AND ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MOST OF
OUR REGION. FUELS HAVE BECOME DRY TO CRITICALLY DRY ALSO. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THOUGH, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A LIGHTNING START POTENTIAL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRYING FUELS. THAT SAID, WEAKER WINDS BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY LIMITS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
-CHEHAK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 91 58 88 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 61 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 70 98 66 96 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 66 91 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 76 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 57 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 55 82 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 64 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 61 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...55
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