730
FXUS64 KMAF 190456
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
- VERY DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10
PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR THE GUADALUPE, DELAWARE, AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE EDDY AND EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY
PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM CDT
MONDAY FOR THE CHINATI MOUNTAINS, DAVIS MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS,
MARFA PLATEAU, VAN HORN AND THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR, AND REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (10-30%)
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG
BEND, AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING SHOWS MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH INCHES ITS WAY CLOSER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING OUT SOME
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE 90S AND 100S (EXCEPT IN HIGHER
TERRAINS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW MIXING TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH SWINGS IN,
TRANSFERRING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS GUSTY WINDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. SOME
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OUT INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
AND THE PERMIAN BASIN, BRINGING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. BLOWING
DUST MAY RESULT FROM GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1-3 MILES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HOURS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS.
A DRYLINE WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND SHOULD SETUP
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA SIMULTANEOUSLY, WHICH COULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT). A FEW OF THESE
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH THIS
ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY AND DUSTY
CONDITIONS DURING PEAK MIXING. WINDS COULD GUST UP AROUND 40 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND LOWER HEIGHTS
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN AS MUCH AS 5-8 DEGREES FROM WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR TODAY.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
A RATHER BLEAK LONG TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR OUR REGION.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
NORMAL, OFFERING A BIT OF RELIEF FROM THE RECENT TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES START IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE CLIMBING
INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLOW AND STEADY CLIMB AFTER TUESDAY AS A
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GREAT
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED TO
START WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 60S TO LOWER 70S. EACH AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY HOT AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS EQUATES TO WIDESPREAD 90S AND LOWER
100S ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
APPEAR VERY LIMITED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OUR REGION BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, BUT SOME HOPE
ARRIVES WITH BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. THIS IS BROUGHT
ON BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS BROAD TROUGHING MAY BRING THE DRYLINE BACK WEST AND
ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO
HE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40 KTS AT MOST
TERMINALS. BLDU IS ALSO A CONCERN, BUT UNCERTAINLY EXISTS AS TO
THE DURATION AND EXTENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL
OVERLAP WITH ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS, CREATING THIS HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER. WHILE LAST WEEK ERCS WERE LOW WITH NEAR NORMAL FUEL
MOISTURE, PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS CAUSING RAPID DRYING.
ERCS HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR AND ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MOST OF
OUR REGION. FUELS HAVE BECOME DRY TO CRITICALLY DRY ALSO. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THOUGH, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A LIGHTNING START POTENTIAL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRYING FUELS. THAT SAID, WEAKER WINDS BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY LIMITS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
-CHEHAK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 98 64 92 58 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 92 61 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 105 70 99 66 / 0 20 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 100 66 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 80 59 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 91 57 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 90 55 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 65 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 95 64 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 95 61 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 11 PM CDT /10 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT MONDAY FOR EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...29
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