581
FXUS64 KMAF 191722
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
- VERY DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON.
- HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPE, DELAWARE, AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (10-30%)
OF RAIN FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG BEND, AND
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS, DUST, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE BASE OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. A
70 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL TRANSITION EAST OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO ENHANCE WINDS. GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 50
MPH ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. FURTHER WEST,
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 70 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 60 MPH IN THE
EDDY AND CULBERSON CO. PLAINS. WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY EAST
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. THESE WINDS WILL KICK UP MORE DUST, BUT
RECENT GREEN-UP SHOULD HELP LIMIT VISIBILITIES FROM GETTING TOO LOW.
NONETHELESS, WE STILL EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR WORK SITES AND OPEN
FIELDS TO SEE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
PACIFIC FRONT THIS MORNING, WE WILL SEE A "COOLDOWN" TODAY WITH
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND SWITCH TO THE NORTH
FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
COMFORTABLE WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 50S. LIGHT WINDS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL DAY
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
MOSTLY ZONAL(WEST TO EAST) FLOW TAKES HOLD ON TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES MOVE RIGHT BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING SIMILARLY HOT. AN UPPER LOW BEGINS SITTING
JUST WEST OF THE REGION AND THE DRYLINE MOVES BACK INTO THE FOLD.
THIS BRINGS LOW(<20%) RAIN CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HEAT HOLDS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES NEARBY.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK YET AGAIN
AROUND OR JUST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AT MOST TERMINALS AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLDU. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF
IMPACTFUL REDUCED VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER, VIS MAY REDUCE TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNM,
HOB, MAF, AND INK TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AND BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, THANKS TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING AS RHS WILL BE CRITICAL(<15%), WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND FUELS CONTINUE TO CURE WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS INCREASE TO 25
TO 35MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND DOWN ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU. FINER
FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO CURE AND INCREASE ERCS IN THE AREA. WINDS
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY. A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEYOND
TODAY, LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST AS
CRITICALLY LOW RHS HOLD ON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 58 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 56 88 56 94 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 65 96 66 94 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 60 90 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 54 82 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 52 85 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 52 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 59 88 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 59 88 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 57 88 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NM...
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...11
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