900
FXUS64 KMAF 200444
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1144 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
- VERY DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE, DELAWARE, AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALSO.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG
BEND, AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS HAS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONED IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, SUPPLYING A WINDY DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. BLOWING DUST WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF CONCERN COMPARED WITH PAST WINDY DAYS DUE TO THE
RECENT GREEN-UP. THIS SHOULD PREVENT VISIBILITIES FROM GETTING
TOO LOW, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OPEN FIELDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO HAVE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION WITH THESE WINDY AND VERY
DRY, WARM CONDITIONS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES FURTHER TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT, PROVIDING THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES THE AREA IS GOING TO SEE THIS WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TOMORROW CREATING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
REGIONWIDE, BESIDES AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND PRESIDIO
VALLEYS REACHING THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. QUASI ZONAL UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS GOING TO PERSIST, SETTING UP THE RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES ENTERING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
THE BLEAK LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A WARMING TREND WITH
LARGELY DRY WEATHER IS ON THE CARDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
QUICKLY TAKES OVER ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS TODAY'S TROUGH WILL
HAVE MOVED WELL OFF TO THE EAST. THIS GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN HOLDS
STRONG THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES EACH
AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOWER 100S WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE WITH
LITTLE EXCEPTION UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE REMAINS A LOW (10-
30%) CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
AND BIG BEND LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ACHIEVED
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. WITH THAT BEING SAID, ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED. MOST WILL NOT SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ANY
RAINFALL WILL HARDLY HELP THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS ATTEMPTING TO SHOW BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNTIED STATES WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING THE DRYLINE BACK
WEST, PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS NEBULOUS,
OFFERING LITTLE HOPE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. A PATTERN CHANGE CAN
NOT COME SOON ENOUGH!
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. THESE GUSTS WILL LAST UNTIL
ABOUT SUNRISE BEFORE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SET IN THE REST OF
TUESDAY. VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 57 87 59 98 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 55 87 56 95 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 63 95 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 59 89 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 52 81 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 51 84 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 50 85 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 58 86 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 58 85 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 56 87 59 97 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...29
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