064
FXUS64 KMAF 200734
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
- HIGHS STAY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS BEING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- LOW(10-20%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
A FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MOST. 90S WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE BROUGHT A DAY OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. QUASI-ZONAL(WEST TO EAST) FLOW TAKES
HOLD AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 100S RETURN ACROSS BIG BEND AND
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE. AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THIS MAY AID IN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY OUT OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF I-20 AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP THAT AFTERNOON AND DECAY THAT EVENING. FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY END UP AS TWO OF THE HOTTER DAYS OF THE YEAR AS RIDGING
MOVES UP OUT OF MEXICO. FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 30C
AND WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, HIGHS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN OF THE DRYLINE TO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. GIVEN THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW(10-20%) AND DETAILS WILL CHANGE WITH EACH
FORECAST.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. THESE GUSTS WILL LAST UNTIL
ABOUT SUNRISE BEFORE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SET IN THE REST OF
TUESDAY. VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 86 59 96 67 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 86 56 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 94 65 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 88 62 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 80 60 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 83 55 92 61 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 83 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 60 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 85 60 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 87 59 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29
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