206
FXUS64 KMAF 201941
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
- WARMING TREND COMMENCES YET AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
- A COLD FRONT MAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
YESTERDAY THAT USHERED IN VERY BREEZY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE, 500MB HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASE. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS
ARE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP THAT WILL
LAST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM. ENJOY THE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, BECAUSE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. LIKEWISE, WHILE LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT/COOL TONIGHT
(50S AND LOW 60S GENERALLY), BY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE ON THE
BACK OF THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE WIND ITSELF LOOKS TO STAY
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
NONEXISTENT UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY HELP FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE (ALBEIT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/STOCKTON
PLATEAU, VAN HORN CORRIDOR, AND TRANS PECOS/SOUTHWESTERN BASIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (15-20 PERCENT
CHANCE) WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN/WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS REGION. A FEW STORMS
COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY
DISSIPATING. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE MAY BECOME MORE PROLIFIC OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING
ALOFT BY FRIDAY, SO IT CURRENTLY APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE STOCKTON
PLATEAU/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/BIG BEND REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH READINGS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVERMUCH OF THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND UP TO 103-108 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
RIDGING ALOFT GENERALLY LOOKS TO REMAIN PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT BY
SUNDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO
RANGE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES FOR MOST PLACES,
EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO
105-110 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A FEW SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WITHIN THE SW-W FLOW ALOFT MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY MAY TREND JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER, BUT STILL IN THE 90S
FOR MOST, EXCEPT 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE 103-108 DEGREE
RANGE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS EACH MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY, WHILE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ALSO
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IMPROVES WITH THESE
FEATURES AND LOOKS TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (20-40% COVERAGE) TO ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGHS LOOK TO
TREND MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT MONDAY, WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 59 96 67 99 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 56 93 62 98 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 65 96 70 99 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 63 96 68 99 / 0 0 0 30
GUADALUPE PASS 60 86 64 90 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 55 91 60 96 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 55 89 59 91 / 0 0 0 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 60 95 68 99 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 60 93 68 97 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 58 96 67 100 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...13
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