195
FXUS64 KMAF 210645
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
145 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
- WARMING TREND COMMENCES YET AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT MAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AFTER SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
HOPEFULLY EVERYONE ENJOYED THE BEAUTIFUL DAY WE SAW TUESDAY WHERE
WE SAW BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. UNFORTUNATELY,
IT WON'T LAST AS HOT CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BUILD HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING.
CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE IT IS
UNLIKELY FOR THE FRONT TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, THE BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN.
ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG HEATING WILL ALSO OCCUR. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, WE CAN'T RULE OUT DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WHERE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY AND WARM, BUT ENDS
UP CLOUDIER WITH RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY NEAR THE
SURFACE, AND A DECREASE IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVE WAY TO TROUGHING.
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S, AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT STRENGTHENS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THEN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS THEN VEER TO
SOUTHERLY UNDER CONTINUED WEAK RIDGING FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S, TRIPLE DIGITS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE BASINS
AND ALONG PECOS RIVER, AND UPPER 80S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HEATING
OF ELEVATED TERRAIN RESULTS IN RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN RAIN CHANCES
OVER AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BUT RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW (<30%). FRIDAY NIGHT, LOWS WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED AS LOWS MAINLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S,
ASIDE FROM LOWER 60S MARFA PLATEAU, BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY,
AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF DRY
AND HOT WEATHER AS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE INDICATED, WITH
TRIPLE DIGITS IN USUAL REGIONS OF SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE BASINS,
ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AS WELL AS INTO MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN - WHILE HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ONLY BE FOUND
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY THEREFORE, HIGHS REMAIN AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH LOWS LIKEWISE FALLING TO 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY MARKS THE START OF A COOL DOWN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT OCCURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH
FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN NM, AS DEPICTED IN WPC
SURFACE ANALYSIS. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S,
UPPER 90S ALONG PECOS RIVER, TRIPLE DIGITS CONFINED TO ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE, AND MID TO UPPER 80S NOT ONLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF W
TX BUT ALSO NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE SO WHILE WARM, IT WILL NOT FEEL AS WARM AS THIS
PAST WEEK. COOLER HIGHS MEAN THAT LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO FALL TO
FALL LOWER, SO SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURES NBM LOWS IN THE MID 50S MARFA
PLATEAU AND BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHERN SE NM
PLAINS INTO NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, WITH LOWER TO MID 60S, UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE BASINS. THIS COMES OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN REGIONS AS NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO
EASTERLY AND THESE UPSLOPE WINDS ADVECT MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE
GULF AND LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING THAT
PREVAILED OVER THE AREA IS SHOWN IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS TO GIVE WAY TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND
THIS TIME AS WELL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN IS INDICATED IN
NBM GRIDS. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING AND RAIN
CHANCES MINIMIZING HEATING OF DRY SOILS AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER
TO THE RIO GRANDE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND HIGHS ONLY
RECOVERING TO JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S, 90S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 0.50" TO 0.75" FOR POINTS OVER AND NORTHEAST
OF THE STOCKTON PLATEAU DURING THIS PERIOD AND A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE REST OF THE SE NM PLAINS INTO THE MARFA PLATEAU,
WITH NBM SHOWING SIMILAR. HOWEVER GIVEN TENDENCY OF NBM TO
OVERPERFORM ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS A FEW DAYS AHEAD OF A RAIN EVENT,
FACTORING IN VALUES FROM LOWER ENSEMBLE PERCENTILES FOR RAIN
TOTALS SHOWS A FEW TENTHS OF RAIN AT MOST FOR MOST OF THE REGION
FROM STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AND POINTS EAST,
WITH ONLY A LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL 0.50" TO 0.75"
FOR THESE SAME REGIONS. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY, AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, BUT
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS BEHIND
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS BUT LOW CLOUD
COVER INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING, LOWS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS. AT THIS TIME, ANY SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LOW AS
STRONGER SHEAR MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZATION OF LONG-LIVED
STORMS REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH THE MAIN THREATS WITH
STRONGER STORMS BEING HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, BLOWING DUST, AND
LIGHTNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 68 98 67 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD 93 62 98 66 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN 96 71 98 71 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 96 69 99 71 / 0 0 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 87 65 90 66 / 0 0 10 10
HOBBS 91 61 96 64 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA 90 60 91 62 / 10 0 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 95 69 99 69 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA 94 69 98 69 / 0 0 10 0
WINK 95 68 99 70 / 0 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29
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