901
FXUS64 KMAF 101132
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
- A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE
SEVERE, PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
AREA RADARS SHOW A VERY BUSY NIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, AS A MCS ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY, WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RATHER SPARSE SINCE THIS EVENT BEGAN, WHEN LCLS
WERE QUITE HIGH. HOWEVER, THERE'S BEEN NO LACK OF LARGE HAIL
REPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
TROUGH RIDING THE US/MEXICO BORDER, AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION KNOCKING ABOUT, RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THE
TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
PERSIST, AS WELL AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL, AS WELL. FOR THOSE WHO LIKE COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LOWLANDS, AND NOT MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION,
THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES BEGIN INCREASING AS UPPER RIDGING FILLS IN
BEHIND IT. INDEED, THIS LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST BONA FIDE ATTEMPT OF
THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AND, IF WE'RE HONEST, IT'S
CLIMATOLOGICALLY OVERDUE. THIS MEANS AN END TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE
WEEKEND, AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LREF AND LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST
ONE MORE TROUGH MAY BEAT THIS MONSTROSITY DOWN BEFORE IT'S HERE TO
STAY THE REST OF THE SUMMER. STAY TUNED...
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT NEAR PEQ THIS MORNING, AND A FEW OF
THESE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP/MOVE TOWARDS CNM OR PERHAPS EVEN INK AS
WELL. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (<30%) THAT THEY
CAUSE DETERIORATION TO MVFR AT ANY SITE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST FOR ALL SITES. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30S FOR CNM AND FST, AS THESE WOULD BE THE FIRST SITES
TO EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z AT MAF, PEQ, HOB, AND INK, SO DID NOT
INCLUDE PROB30S FOR THEM YET, THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY (>60%
CONFIDENCE) BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 86 65 87 66 / 60 40 60 30
CARLSBAD 86 64 89 67 / 60 40 30 10
DRYDEN 96 68 89 70 / 60 70 50 20
FORT STOCKTON 91 65 88 67 / 70 40 60 20
GUADALUPE PASS 84 62 85 66 / 50 40 40 10
HOBBS 82 61 85 63 / 60 50 40 10
MARFA 88 59 86 61 / 80 50 70 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 66 86 67 / 60 40 50 20
ODESSA 85 65 86 67 / 60 40 50 20
WINK 89 65 88 67 / 60 40 40 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13
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