001
FXUS64 KMAF 101746
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
- A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE
SEVERE, PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
AREA RADARS SHOW A VERY BUSY NIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, AS A MCS ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY, WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RATHER SPARSE SINCE THIS EVENT BEGAN, WHEN LCLS
WERE QUITE HIGH. HOWEVER, THERE'S BEEN NO LACK OF LARGE HAIL
REPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
TROUGH RIDING THE US/MEXICO BORDER, AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION KNOCKING ABOUT, RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THE
TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
PERSIST, AS WELL AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL, AS WELL. FOR THOSE WHO LIKE COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LOWLANDS, AND NOT MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION,
THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES BEGIN INCREASING AS UPPER RIDGING FILLS IN
BEHIND IT. INDEED, THIS LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST BONA FIDE ATTEMPT OF
THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AND, IF WE'RE HONEST, IT'S
CLIMATOLOGICALLY OVERDUE. THIS MEANS AN END TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE
WEEKEND, AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LREF AND LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST
ONE MORE TROUGH MAY BEAT THIS MONSTROSITY DOWN BEFORE IT'S HERE TO
STAY THE REST OF THE SUMMER. STAY TUNED...
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
SCATTERED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS OF 18Z. WE
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
ERRATIC GUSTS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS TO MVFR WITH VISIBILITY LOWER THAN MVFR
TIMES IN STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WE INCLUDED PROB30 AT ALL
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 21-03Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHICH COULD IMPACT KMAF, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF THERE FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 65 82 66 / 50 70 60 20
CARLSBAD 85 65 87 66 / 70 50 20 10
DRYDEN 95 67 87 70 / 70 80 50 10
FORT STOCKTON 90 64 86 67 / 80 70 40 10
GUADALUPE PASS 83 62 83 66 / 70 40 20 10
HOBBS 81 62 84 63 / 70 60 30 10
MARFA 87 60 85 61 / 80 50 40 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 65 84 67 / 60 70 60 10
ODESSA 84 65 83 67 / 60 70 50 10
WINK 88 65 87 67 / 80 60 30 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...21
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