224
FXUS64 KMAF 110534
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
MAIN THREATS WITH SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WARMING TREND IN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AFTER WEDNESDAY, WITH
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES BY
THIS WEEKEND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S NOW WEAKENING MCS VISIBLE FROM WARMING
ALBEIT COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX IN IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY, CLEARING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE BEEN APPARENT
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MCS, WITH WESTERLY WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE
MCS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW. AN MCV AND AGITATED
CUMULUS ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE BEEN APPARENT OVER DAVIS
MOUNTAINS SINCE MID MORNING, AND THIS IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
STORM INITIATION, ALONG WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN AND IN NEAR STATIONARY SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
ANCHORED TO TERRAIN UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM OTERO AND
LINCOLN INTO CHAVES COUNTIES IN NEW MEXICO. STORMS OVER BREWSTER
COUNTY MOVING EAST INTO TERRELL COUNTY IN OUTFLOW BEHIND THE MCS
ARE ALSO APPARENT ON VIS/IR, BUT HAS NOT DELAYED EXPANSION OF
STORMS FROM DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO THIS REGION. SIMULATED IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND HIGH-RES CAMS ARE
CONSISTENT TODAY IN SHOWING STORM OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO LOWER
TRANS PECOS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, EXPANDING EAST,
WITH STORM ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SE NM PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DEPICTED IN DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUES TO FEATURE A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT
WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING OF LOWERED
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY, WITH A
LESS DISTINCT POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE AZ/NM/NORTHERN
MEXICO BORDER. BOTH THESE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPART WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA OF AT
LEAST 35 TO 40 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM CULBERSON COUNTY INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS. THIS MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS CHARACTERISTIC OF LONG-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOW
INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG, MINIMAL CIN WITH MAGNITUDE
LESS THAN 20 J/KG, DCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG, AND LOW- LEVEL TO MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM, INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE NON
HYDROSTATIC MOTIONS AND ABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE ROOTED IN THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER, SUGGESTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
PWATS VARY IN ENSEMBLES FROM AROUND 1.00" FROM CULBERSON COUNTY
AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TO AROUND 1.30" TO 1.50" CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN INTO EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU - SUFFICIENT FOR
MINIMIZING MELTING OF FALLING HAILSTONES, WITH SHIP VALUES IN ALL
THESE REGIONS AT LEAST 1.5, POINTING TO A LARGE HAIL RISK AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL RH CLOSE TO 70% DESPITE MID-LEVEL RH BELOW 70%
MAY MINIMIZE THE LARGE HAIL RISK, ESPECIALLY WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
OF STORMS FARTHER EAST. 0-3 KM SRH ACROSS THIS CENTRAL REGION
CORRIDOR FROM CULBERSON COUNTY INTO LOWER TRANS PECOS HAS
MAGNITUDES AT LEAST AT THE 80 M2/S2 MINIMUM THRESHOLD FOR
TORNADOGENESIS, LCLS BELOW 2000 METERS AND UNDER 1000 METERS BY
EVENING, AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WITH EASTERLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL
WINDS UNDERNEATH VEERING AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER,
STP VALUES ARE CLOSE TO ZERO, SO DAMAGING WIND AND THEN LARGE HAIL
AGAIN APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH TODAY'S STORMS. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED SOUTHERN EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES INTO MOST OF BREWSTER
COUNTY AND TERRELL COUNTY IN A SLGT RISK, A MRGL RISK ALL OTHER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND MENTIONED DAYTIME HEATING OF
ELEVATED TERRAIN OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THIS MORNING'S MCS AS FACTORS IN RENEWED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.
AS IN THE PAST TWO DAYS, STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC HAS 5% TO 15% RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL, 2% RISK OF TORNADOES WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY GIVEN
POINT IN THIS HATCHED SLGT RISK AREA. WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO
DEPICTS A MEANDERING SYNOPTIC SCALE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT
MEANDERING IN VICINITY OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
MODULATED BY AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
STORM INTERACTIONS. NBM POP GRIDS REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY IN
COVERAGE AND PREVAILING STORM MODE FROM THE MODERATE CAPE-MODERATE
SHEAR-LOW CIN SETUP TODAY, WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN POPS AT
LEAST 40% TO 55% OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS EXTENDING INTO SE NM PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, AND INTO MOST OF BREWSTER COUNTY AND TERRELL
COUNTY INTO LOWER TRANS PECOS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, WHILE 35% TO 50% POPS CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP EASTWARD
FROM SE NM PLAINS INTO PERMIAN BASIN. CAA AND EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING FROM STORMS BEHIND THE WEAKENING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DIURNAL HEATING, BUT THE HUMID
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND FILTERED
SUNSHINE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TILT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE NORTH OF THE QUASI- STATIONARY COLD FRONT,
AND NEAR TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
COLD FRONT. TONIGHT, HIGHEST POPS DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS
STORMS IN HIGH-RES CAMS ARE SHOWN AS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CAA AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM STORM PRECIPITATION WILL LIKEWISE BE
OFFSET BY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WATER VAPOR ADVECTION LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO LOWS END UP NEAR AVERAGE AND IN THE 60S,
UPPER 50S NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO LOWER TRANS
PECOS, AND LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG RIO GRANDE.
WEDNESDAY, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING FROM UPPER AIR SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
ON AND QC IN CANADA EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
US CONTINUING TO LET UP, WITH BUILDING RIDGING OF GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FROM DESERT SW INTO HIGH
PLAINS, AND ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES FOR THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL US SHOWING POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES.
THEREFORE, WEDNESDAY WOULD BEGIN A TREND OF SUBSIDING MOTION IN A
WARMING AND EXPANDING AIR COLUMN. HOWEVER, POPS STILL REMAIN
HIGH, AT LEAST 40% TO 55% FROM EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
FROM RAINFALL CONTINUING TO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN. SPC
HAS ALSO AGAIN OUTLINED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLGT
RISK AREA, MAINLY W TX EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF CULBERSON COUNTY AND
SE NM PLAINS. UNDER WEAKENING WESTERLY TURNING TO NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IN WAKE OF DESERT SW TROUGH, THIS STORM FORMATION IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT HUMID AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S F EAST OF
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN - OWING TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO THIS WEEK - AND COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AMIDST
SIMILAR CAPE, CIN, DCAPE, AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO TODAY, BUT
DECREASING PWATS, LOW-LEVEL RH, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS. WHILE NOT
MENTIONED IN THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK, A SMALL BUT NONZERO RISK OF
TORNADOES AS LCLS BELOW 2000 METERS AND CLOSE TO 1000 METERS WITH
0-3 KM SRH AT THE 80 M2/S2 THRESHOLD AND ENHANCED BY STORM-TERRAIN
INTERACTIONS AND POSSIBLE MCV EFFECTS ON FLOW FIELD SHOULD AN MCS
AGAIN DEVELOP AND TREK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HIGHS END UP 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LARGER EXTENT OF UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
FROM UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO EDDY COUNTY, BASINS OF CULBERSON
COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE BASINS, AND REDUCED EXTENT OF MID
90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERNMOST RIO
GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY. MEDIUM PROBABILITY POPS AND
STORMS IN HIGH-RES CAMS QUICKLY TRAIL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AGAIN FALLING INTO THE 60S, 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO SOUTHERN
TERRELL COUNTY, BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS NEAR
SURFACE WAA BEGINS WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR ADVECTION LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY THE TIME THIS RAINIER PERIOD HAS COME TO
AN END BY TOMORROW EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NBM GRIDS OF AT
LEAST 0.50" TO 0.75" AND EVEN LOWER ENSEMBLE PERCENTILES OF 0.30"
TO 0.50" ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN AND LEESIDE OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO
LOWER TRANS PECOS ARE INDICATED. THESE WETTING RAINS WILL NOT STOP
THE ONSET OF A WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
READ ON FOR MORE ON THIS PATTERN CHANGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
BUILDING 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ABOVE 588 DECAMETERS,
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FROM 576 DECAMETERS TO AT LEAST 582
DECAMETERS, AND MID TO UPPER RIDGING FROM DESERT SW INTO HIGH
PLAINS WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND 50S TO 60S F
EAST OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN MEAN WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL
LOWER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED. NBM POPS IN GRIDS STILL SHOW
20% TO 35% OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HEATING
OF ELEVATED TERRAIN AS STRONGER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES SOME
TIME TO AMPLIFY, BUT BY THIS WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES LARGELY SHUT
OFF. REMNANT CLOUDS AND DAYTIME STORM CHANCES KEEP TEMPERATURES
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF REGIONS OF STORM FORMATION NEAR AVERAGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WITH REGIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS INTO LOWER TRANS PECOS SEEING HIGHS REBOUNDING TO 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
UPPER 80S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND USUAL COOLER SPOTS OF NORTHERN
LEA COUNTY, NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, MID TO UPPER
90S UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY, RIO GRANDE
BASINS, AND TERRELL COUNTY, AND TRIPLE DIGITS FROM THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY INTO THE BIG BEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MEAN EXPANDED
TRIPLE DIGITS OVER BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE INTO THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE BASINS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, NBM
GRIDS THEN SHOW TRIPLE DIGIT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED
OVER UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO EDDY COUNTY, WITH MID TO UPPER 90S,
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S HIGHER ELEVATIONS, 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE EVERYWHERE. WITH THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING OF JUNE NEAR
SUMMER SOLSTICE, LONGER DAYS ALONG WITH HOTTER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MEANING SHORTER NIGHTS HAVING LESS TIME TO COOL OFF,
RADIATIONAL COOLING INHIBITED BY HUMID OVERNIGHT DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 50S AND 60S F - HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THE REGION BY EARLY THIS WEEK, WHEN HEAT RISK
VALUES OF 2 TO 3 ARE INDICATED OVER MUCH OF SE NM PLAINS, UPPER
TRANS PECOS, AND RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY AND
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY TO MID JUNE. IF THERE
AREN'T ANY MORE TROUGHS/UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES AND ACCOMPANYING
WIND SHEAR ALLOWING FOR ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE OF LONG-LIVED
STORMS AND/OR NO MAJOR NEAR SURFACE FEATURES PROVIDING FORCING
FOR ASCENT, THE RAINFALL THIS WEEK MAY BE THE LAST OF THIS SPRING
BEFORE THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OF THE SUMMERTIME DEATH RIDGE
SET IN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OR
LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT MAF LATER THIS MORNING, THOUGH
CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF (<30%). OTHERWISE, LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 81 64 93 71 / 40 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 88 66 96 67 / 10 10 20 10
DRYDEN 88 69 94 72 / 30 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 87 66 95 70 / 20 0 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 84 65 90 68 / 20 10 20 10
HOBBS 84 62 91 65 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA 85 60 89 62 / 30 10 40 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 66 92 71 / 30 0 10 10
ODESSA 83 65 91 70 / 30 0 10 10
WINK 87 66 95 69 / 10 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page