111
FXUS64 KMAF 111134
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
- LOW-TO-MEDIUM (10-40%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
TODAY IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW OVERALL, ASIDE FROM
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
- A HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALMOST NONEXISTENT AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
THE MCS THAT MARCHED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS NOW MADE ITS WAY
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. BEHIND IT, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE HELPED DEVELOP THAT MCS
MAKING ITS TREK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AS THIS
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WHATEVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MAKE THEIR WAY BEYOND OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. BESIDES THIS ACTIVITY, CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
ALSO ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. OVERALL, BOTH SCENARIOS HAVE A LOW-TO-MEDIUM
CHANCE OF OCCURRING (10-40%). SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED TODAY (15-
25 KNOTS IN GENERAL), BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
THAT BEING SAID, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY, SO ENJOY THE
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WHILE YOU CAN! HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT IN THE 80S
FOR MOST (EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE), WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
GENERALLY. HOWEVER, THINGS START TO CHANGE TOMORROW. WE WILL BE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BY THEN IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. OUT TO THE WEST, THE RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO CREEP BACK THIS
DIRECTION. CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (20-
40%). OTHERWISE, THURSDAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND,
WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM...
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
THE RECENT RAINS AND COOLER WEATHER BEGINS TO COME TO AN END BY
FRIDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO INTENSIFY AND BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARDS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS INTO THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH 100S RETURNING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. MORE
WIDESPREAD 100S RETURN BY NEXT WEEK. SIMILARLY, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THE MOST PREVALENT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THE
RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
ONLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIVEN BY THE
FAVORABLE TERRAIN IN THE CASE OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BY GLANCING
BLOWS FROM DISTANCE WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. OVERALL, A HOT AND DRY FORECAST IS TO BE EXPECTED. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR ANY MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT
WEEK.
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH MAY MIGRATE TOWARDS MAF THIS MORNING (THOUGH THEY HAVE
TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTH), SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
THIS ISSUANCE. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NEAR FST AS WELL, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A PROB30 THERE. OTHERWISE,
EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD FOR MOST
SITES (LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SITES).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 80 64 91 70 / 40 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 87 67 96 68 / 10 10 20 10
DRYDEN 87 69 93 72 / 40 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 84 66 95 70 / 20 0 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 82 66 90 68 / 10 10 20 10
HOBBS 83 62 91 66 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA 84 61 90 63 / 30 10 40 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 66 92 71 / 30 0 10 10
ODESSA 82 66 92 70 / 20 0 10 10
WINK 86 66 95 70 / 10 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...13
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