465
FXUS64 KMAF 120522
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
- LOW-TO-MEDIUM (10-40%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. SEVERE THREAT IS
LOW OVERALL, ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- A HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALMOST NONEXISTENT AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
WE ARE SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
EAST. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE REST
OF THE REGION MAINLY QUIET DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. HOPEFULLY EVERYONE
ENJOYED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS STAY GENERALLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UNFORTUNATELY, IT WON'T LAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
TO NORMAL AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE AT THE SURFACE, SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NM COULD MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY (20-40%). SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NM, BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
WITH THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL
REMAIN IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THIS WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA PROVIDING AT
LEAST SOME LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-30%). WE AREN'T
EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AMID
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND 100S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S
THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING BUILDS MORE OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING NIL AND MANY LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE THE
100 DEGREE MARK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 94 71 98 73 / 0 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 97 69 100 70 / 10 10 10 0
DRYDEN 97 74 99 73 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 96 72 100 72 / 10 0 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 92 69 95 70 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 93 67 97 68 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA 92 63 95 64 / 20 10 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 72 97 74 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA 94 71 97 73 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 97 71 100 72 / 0 0 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...13
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