269
FXUS64 KMAF 122203
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 502 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-20%) PERSIST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR TO
ABOVE 100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS WE LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH RIDGING BUILDING OUT WEST. A FEW
DISTURBANCES ROLLING WITHIN THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH UPSLOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED
(10-20%) SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. A STORM OR
TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITHIN THE PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S/70S. HIGHS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. OUR HOTTEST
SPOTS WILL BE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST. MORE HEAT LOOKS TO BE THE TREND HEADING INTO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE LONG TERM SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BUILDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES
STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTIONS BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER
WHICH SHOULD HOLD TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGS LOWER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 25 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT KCNM/KHOB, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 70 98 73 100 / 0 20 10 0
CARLSBAD 69 99 70 102 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 73 98 74 99 / 0 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 71 99 72 100 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 69 94 70 96 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 66 97 68 98 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA 64 94 65 94 / 10 20 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 98 73 99 / 0 10 10 0
ODESSA 71 97 73 98 / 0 10 10 0
WINK 71 101 72 102 / 0 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...44
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