981
FXUS64 KMAF 130533
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-20%) PERSIST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR TO
ABOVE 100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS WE LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH RIDGING BUILDING OUT WEST. A FEW
DISTURBANCES ROLLING WITHIN THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH UPSLOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED
(10-20%) SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. A STORM OR
TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITHIN THE PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S/70S. HIGHS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. OUR HOTTEST
SPOTS WILL BE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST. MORE HEAT LOOKS TO BE THE TREND HEADING INTO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE LONG TERM SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BUILDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES
STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTIONS BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER
WHICH SHOULD HOLD TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGS LOWER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREVALENT FOR THE MOST PART
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT AT ANY LOCAL TERMINAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR
LEVELS. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 98 73 101 73 / 20 10 0 10
CARLSBAD 99 70 102 73 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 98 74 99 75 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 99 72 100 73 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 94 70 96 71 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 97 68 98 69 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA 94 65 94 65 / 20 10 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 73 99 74 / 20 10 0 10
ODESSA 97 73 99 74 / 10 10 0 10
WINK 101 72 102 73 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...21
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