880
FXUS64 KMAF 130820
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 210 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-30% CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- A HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR TO
ABOVE 100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
ARKLATEX AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/BAJA REGION. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DROPPING INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE BAJA
REGION TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE N-NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
FEATURES COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION (10-30% COVERAGE) SHOULD
INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND THE BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED (10-20% COVERAGE) STORM DEVELOPMENT FORMING OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED/MARGINAL IN NATURE. STORMS MAY
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH
THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME MUCH MORE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS
OF THE BIG BEND REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING HOTTER OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY (EXCEPT UP TO 105-110
DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HANG ON
EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH MUCH OF THE REGION REACHING INTO THE
90S TO LOW 100S. PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOW DESERT, LOOKS TO REACH INTO THE LOW 110S MOST AFTERNOONS. HEAT
PRODUCTS OF SOME KIND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. WITH NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE, DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND EACH
DAY SEES RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW(<10%).
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREVALENT FOR THE MOST PART
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT AT ANY LOCAL TERMINAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR
LEVELS. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 96 72 98 73 / 10 20 0 0
CARLSBAD 99 69 103 71 / 10 10 10 0
DRYDEN 97 74 99 75 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 99 72 100 73 / 10 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 94 69 95 71 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 96 67 98 69 / 10 20 10 10
MARFA 94 64 93 64 / 20 10 20 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 72 100 74 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 95 72 99 73 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 99 71 100 73 / 10 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21
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