092
FXUS64 KMAF 131940
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 154 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-30% CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- A HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR TO
ABOVE 100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR REGION TO START OFF THE
SHORT TERM AS WE TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH TO A RIDGE. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO ON
SATURDAY, KICKING UP THE THERMOSTAT A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO FRIDAY, SPANNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRANS PECOS, NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND BIG BEND,
AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. AS PER USUAL, THE HOTTEST
LOCATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110. A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROLL ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE PROVIDING LIFT THAT, WHEN COMBINED WITH
MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, MAY HELP SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(10-20%) IN THE VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, A STORM OR TWO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT SETTLE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CAN BE CHARACTERIZED SIMPLY AS HOT AND DRY,
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BUILDS NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEARING OR EXCEEDING 100
DEGREES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ELIMINATE
ANY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE ROCKIES
ON TUESDAY DAMPENING OUT THE RIDGE AND GIVING US WESTERLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY SINCE
DESPITE LOWER HEIGHTS AND WEAKER SUBSIDENCE, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS BRING HOTTER AIR INTO THE LOWER LEVELS CAUSING MANY
LOCATIONS TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW LEVEL MOIST,
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN COULD PROVIDE A SLIGHT
MODERATING INFLUENCE TO TEMPERATURES SO HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR THE DRY WESTERLY AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO WEST TEXAS. THE RIDGE
QUICKLY REBUILDS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE CENTER
THEN LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PROVIDES OUR AREA WITH
A MORE MODERATE EASTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW THAT SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE 90S THAN TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE, CLOSER
TO 850MB DRY ADIABATIC EXTRAPOLATION THAN IT IS TO MOS.
TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MANAGE REMAIN IN THE AREA.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR HOB
AND CNM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE COULD CAUSE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, THROUGH COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 98 73 98 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 70 101 71 102 / 10 10 10 0
DRYDEN 73 99 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 99 72 100 / 10 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 70 96 70 95 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS 68 98 69 99 / 20 10 10 0
MARFA 64 93 64 94 / 10 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 99 74 98 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 72 98 73 98 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 72 101 72 101 / 20 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...95
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