033
FXUS64 KMAF 141920
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
220 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BECOME CONFINED TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND BIG BEND REGION TODAY. A STORM OR
TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO
108-113 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MAKE ITS
WAY TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST, BUMPING UP OUR TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROUNDING THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH MOIST, UPSLOPING SURFACE
WINDS MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE, AROUND 10- 20%. OTHERWISE, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS ON
TAP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS, PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND AREAS NEAR
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE LATTER REGION IS WHERE WE EXPECT TO
SEE OUR HOTTEST CONDITIONS, AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWS IN THE 70S
DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
MAF IS CURRENTLY SITTING AT 97 DEGREES WITH A 64 DEWPOINT, A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE FOR HOW MOIST IT STILL IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS GIVES MORE VALIDITY TO THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK. THE
HOTTEST DAYS STILL APPEAR TO BE MON/TUE/WED WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE GETS FLATTENED BY A PASSING TROUGH AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
WINDS BRING IN HOT AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE
REBUILDS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EASTERLY WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH SHOULD ADVECT IN COOLER AIR
FROM THE GULF AND POSSIBLY PREVENT A RETURN OF THE CENTURY HEAT,
THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, REMAINING GUSTY ON
OCCASION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 72 103 70 105 / 10 10 10 0
DRYDEN 75 99 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 100 70 102 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 96 71 98 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 70 100 68 102 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA 64 93 64 96 / 10 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 100 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 74 99 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 73 101 71 104 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...95
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