230
FXUS64 KMAF 150521
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BECOME CONFINED TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND BIG BEND REGION TODAY. A STORM OR
TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO
108-113 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MAKE ITS
WAY TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST, BUMPING UP OUR TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROUNDING THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH MOIST, UPSLOPING SURFACE
WINDS MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE, AROUND 10- 20%. OTHERWISE, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS ON
TAP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS, PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND AREAS NEAR
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE LATTER REGION IS WHERE WE EXPECT TO
SEE OUR HOTTEST CONDITIONS, AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWS IN THE 70S
DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
MAF IS CURRENTLY SITTING AT 97 DEGREES WITH A 64 DEWPOINT, A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE FOR HOW MOIST IT STILL IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS GIVES MORE VALIDITY TO THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK. THE
HOTTEST DAYS STILL APPEAR TO BE MON/TUE/WED WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE GETS FLATTENED BY A PASSING TROUGH AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
WINDS BRING IN HOT AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE
REBUILDS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EASTERLY WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH SHOULD ADVECT IN COOLER AIR
FROM THE GULF AND POSSIBLY PREVENT A RETURN OF THE CENTURY HEAT,
THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-12Z, BUT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND IMPACT CIGS AT MAF. GUSTS RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 72 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 103 70 105 74 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 99 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 100 70 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 96 71 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 100 68 102 71 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 93 64 96 66 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 73 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 99 72 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 101 71 104 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
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