325
FXUS64 KMAF 151718
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS SOUTH
OF I-10 AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO
108-113 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVERHEAD AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES MOVE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY. MANY SPOTS REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. HI RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARD ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. CONVECTION DECAYS SUNDAY EVENING AND
WITH A CONTINUING SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TEMPERATURES SETTLE
INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY AND
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE
WARMTH CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE RIDGE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM HOLDS ON FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR
THE CWA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CENTER THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES IN THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY AND DOWN ACROSS THE BIG BEND REACH BETWEEN 107-113F. THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.
THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH RAIN
CHANCES STAYING LOW(<10%).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING STORM COMPLEX TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO BREEZY, NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 70 104 74 107 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 74 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 102 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 70 97 73 99 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 69 102 72 104 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 63 96 65 97 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 103 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 73 105 75 107 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...95
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