181
FXUS64 KMAF 151819
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
119 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 105 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THE MOUNTAINS IN WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY
BREEZY WINDS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES DURING THIS TIME, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 108-113 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING STORM COMPLEX TO THE NORTHEAST
OF OUR REGION IS COOLING PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LOWER ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PERMIAN
BASIN LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH, SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST. THU POPS REMAIN LOW 10-20% FOR
THESE AREAS. OVERALL, MID- LEVEL RIDGING HAS TAKEN HOLD OF OUR
WEATHER PATTERN AND WILL INFLUENCE WEATHER IN OUR REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 70S FOR MOST. MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HEAT UP BEYOND THE
CENTURY MARK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH 90S FORECAST FOR
THE MARFA PLATEAU, THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS
RIVER VALLEYS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105- 110 DEGREES. ASIDE FROM ANY
SUBSIDING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY, THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
TUESDAY IS SET TO BE OUR HOTTEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 105-110 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, THE TRANS PECOS, AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
THERMOMETER LOOKS TO REACH THE 110-113 DEGREE RANGE NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WHILE MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS HEAT INTO THE LOW 100S. HOWEVER, TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE A
TURNING POINT IN OUR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AS A TROUGH FROM THE
STARTS TO SHOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BACK OFF TO THE WEST. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN BREEZY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY, GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER OVERHEAD AND HIGHS DROP DOWN A TOUCH, IN
THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. ALTHOUGH, HIGHS IN THE 110-112 DEGREE
RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY RETURNS, BUT WITH ITS AXIS FURTHER NORTH
OF OUR AREA. THIS ALLOWS OUR HIGHS TO STAY PRIMARILY IN THE 90S
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DECAYING STORM COMPLEX TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO BREEZY, NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 71 104 75 107 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 75 101 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 102 75 106 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 97 74 99 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 69 101 72 105 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 64 94 65 98 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 102 76 105 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 101 76 105 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 73 104 75 108 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...95
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