129
FXUS64 KMAF 161938
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 214 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
- HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME, WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO
108-113 DEGREES.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
WE DON'T HAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY, SO THERE IS NOTHING KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME 100S LIKELY
BEFORE PEAK HEATING IS DONE. SATELLITE IS SHOWING CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND WHICH COULD LEAD
TO A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO, BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN.
MODELS STILL SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DAMPENING A HIGH TO OUR WEST
AND STRETCHING THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR UP INTO
NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND MANY AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COUNTIES OFF THE
CAPROCK IN THE EASTERN BASIN WILL BE A LITTLE "COOLER", THOUGH
STILL ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK, BUT NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. HEAT RISK IS THE PRIMARY MESSAGING WITH PLENTY OF
HYDRATION AND LIMITED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE THE BEST WAY TO PREVENT
HEAT STRESS.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE TROUGH THAT DAMPENS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES DECREASING SLIGHTLY, ESPECIALLY BEHIND
THE FRONT THOUGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY NOT DROP MUCH SO
THE LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR THE HIGH
FORECAST. IN ADDITION, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY
AND MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO FORM NEAR THE STOCKTON PLATEAU.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO BUT
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH OPENS UP FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF ADVECTING IN TEMPERATURES
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THAT WOULD BE A WELCOME RELIEF. ALSO, WHILE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS MOSTLY DRY, JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST TIME
FRAME MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANY RAIN WOULD BE HELPFUL.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS. A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING FURTHER
INCREASING THE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY AT MAF,
HOB, INK, AND FST TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 103 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 106 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 75 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 76 106 75 101 / 0 20 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 73 99 70 92 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 72 105 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 65 98 66 96 / 10 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 106 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 76 105 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 75 108 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR ANDREWS-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-
CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-TERRELL-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11
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