933
FXUS64 KMAF 280513
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN,
AND SMALL HAIL.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT LEAST 0.25" TO
0.50" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY END OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US, WHILE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES FROM A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THESE IMPULSES COINCIDING WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL SUPPLY MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR RAIN/STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY CONFINED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUES CONTINUE TO REACH NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MAXIMUM
INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL IS GOING TO BE PREVALENT. GUIDANCE ALSO
HAS SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPSCALE THUNDERSTORM GROWTH HAS
BEEN PREVALENT IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE GROUND BEING
SATURATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THESE
AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT 'INVERTED-V' PROFILES SIGNALING A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS IS ALL TO SAY
THAT MOST STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN
THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE FORECASTED TO
LINGER IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE PLACING THEM NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATURDAY
NIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL (MID 60S TO MID 70S) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REGIONWIDE.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD
WITH MOST REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S
HANG ON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WITH
WEAK RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGHING JUST TO THE WEST,
LOW TO MEDIUM(20-40%) RAIN CHANCES HANG ON ACROSS THE CWA EACH DAY.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PEAK EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ANY ACTIVITY
REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN FOR ANY
LOCATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER, AREAS SUCH AS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SHOULD WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AS SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TREND TO NEAR NORMAL FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD WITH LOWS STAYING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. OVERALL, A MOSTLY SEASONABLE SUMMER(WITH RAIN!)
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, W/BASES ~ 4.5-8 KFT AGL. CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 97 74 98 74 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD 91 71 95 71 / 20 10 20 10
DRYDEN 97 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 94 72 95 72 / 30 20 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 83 67 87 67 / 30 10 30 10
HOBBS 91 70 93 69 / 20 10 10 10
MARFA 85 65 86 65 / 60 30 60 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 96 74 97 74 / 10 10 10 10
ODESSA 95 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
WINK 94 72 95 72 / 20 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-MARFA PLATEAU-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44
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