034
FXUS64 KMAF 282335
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO DAVIS
MOUNTAINS.
- GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AS WELL AS LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE MAIN RISKS WITH ANY STORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN/AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. ULTIMATELY, OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY YET AGAIN DEPENDS LARGELY
ON WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP AND MOVE. SO, WHILE THE HIGHEST
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS (50-60%),
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO BE
EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER (20-40%
CHANCE) AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS (10-30% CHANCE).
THOUGH THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED, SOME FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS REMAIN, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN/NEAR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS (WHICH HAVE RECEIVED AMPLE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
WERE STILL DEALING WITH FLOODED ROADWAYS AS OF THIS MORNING). IN ANY
CASE, BY TONIGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WANES, AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (LOW-TO-MID
70S, WITH TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN THE UPPER 60S).
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES (50-
60%) WILL BE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY FOR
ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATIONS AS TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK PULSES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADDED FORCING FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING (10-20% CHANCE). HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
90S FOR MOST, AND LOWS WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TONIGHT'S.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
WEAK RIDGING HOLDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO BEGIN THE COMING WEEK
AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE US THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, UNDERCUTTING THAT RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL HOLD OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND OVER WEST
TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP UP THE QUASI-MONSOONAL
CONDITIONS THAT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF
THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY WITH A GRADIENT OF LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU. THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS LOOK TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS PATTERN WHERE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GREATER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE MOST STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
PROBLEM FOR AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED RAIN EVENTS EACH DAY. FORECAST
LOWS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 70S AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING INTO THE
60S.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS.
LOW TO MEDIUM (15-40%) CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS, THEREFORE, TS AND
-TSRA TEMPO AND PROB30S WERE IMPLEMENTED FOR HOB, INK, FST, AND
PEQ TERMINALS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER 03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 98 75 95 / 10 10 10 30
CARLSBAD 70 94 70 89 / 30 20 20 50
DRYDEN 75 98 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 73 95 72 92 / 20 30 20 30
GUADALUPE PASS 66 86 66 82 / 30 30 20 40
HOBBS 71 92 70 89 / 30 20 20 50
MARFA 64 85 64 83 / 40 70 30 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 96 74 94 / 10 10 10 30
ODESSA 74 95 73 93 / 20 10 10 30
WINK 73 95 72 91 / 30 20 20 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY FOR CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN
CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-MARFA PLATEAU-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...11
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