628
FXUS64 KMAF 291727
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
- DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TODAY INTO MID WEEK OVER ALL OF THE AREA
BEFORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTRACT TO ALONG PECOS RIVER AND
SOUTHWEST. SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL EXPECTED IN STRONGER STORMS.
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO MID WEEK, THEN A WARMING TREND IN BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MESSY UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND AREAS SOUTH, BUTTRESSED BY A TROUGH OFF THE
SOCAL/BAJA COAST, AND ANOTHER CENTERED OVER GEORGIA. CLOSER TO
HOME, AREA RADARS SHOW CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY EVENING CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH.
TODAY, MODELS CONTINUE INCREASING THICKNESSES, ADDING A DEGREE OR
SO TO YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. DESPITE THIS, HIGHS WILL COME IN WITHIN
A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL. MEANWHILE, MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A COL OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, SETTING
UP A SHEAR ZONE AND HOPEFULLY MORE RAIN FOR THE AREA IN THE
COMING DAYS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BUT WITH THE COL ORIENTED SW-NE, LESSER CHANCES
WILL STRETCH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
TONIGHT, THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP, BUT LOOKS JUST A BIT
WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE. THIS, AND DEBRIS CLOUD WILL CONTINUE
TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING, RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING'S IF NOT A SKOSH COOLER. SW-NE-ORIENTED
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, THICKNESSES DECREASE A BIT UNDER THE COL, SHAVING ~ 2-3 F
OFF OF TODAY'S HIGHS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE AREA, INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN BE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BUT ALSO IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES W/THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A COOL START TO EARLY THIS WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF
THE AREA, THEN WARMING UP WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTRACTING TO
GUADALUPES, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG BEND AND POINTS SOUTHWEST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO PRESIDIO VALLEY AND BIG BEND,
AS WELL AS NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
SHOW MID TO UPPER RIDGING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TO START THE
WEEK WITH TROUGHING, EVEN AS 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS REMAIN AT
LEAST 588 DECAMETERS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES REMAIN BETWEEN
576 AND 582 DECAMETERS INDICATING SEASONAL WARM AIR COLUMNS AND
EXPANSE OF WARM AIR MASS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
CORE OF RIDGING REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEK ALLOWS PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVES PROVIDING LIFT IN MID
TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE. NEAR THE SURFACE, WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES LEE TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NM AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH ALLOWING FOR MORE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND CONTINUATION OF HUMID, UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
WINDS. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH HIGHS
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, MID 70S TO LOWER 80S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY, AND LOWER TO MID 90S PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO
BIG BEND AS CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING LIMITS WARMING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. LOWS IN
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST AS WELL, AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOLLOWING LOW TO MEDIUM POPS TUESDAY MORNING,
POPS INCREASE TO MEDIUM TO HIGH VALUES DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO
CULBERSON COUNTY AND SE NM PLAINS, WITH MEDIUM POPS PROGRESSIVELY
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR STORY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH LOW TO MEDIUM POPS OVER MOST OF PERMIAN
BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MEDIUM POPS ALONG SE
NM PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND MEDIUM
TO HIGH POPS OVER SOUTHERN CULBERSON COUNTY INTO DAVIS MOUNTAINS
AND BIG BEND, AND HIGHEST POPS IN PRESIDIO VALLEY.
A WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK/BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS CORE OF MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS
SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT WASHES OUT, WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS LEE
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST NM THAT ALLOW FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IN
RESPONSE, SO MEDIUM TO HIGH POPS GUADALUPES INTO DAVIS MOUNTAINS
AND BIG BEND AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST, WITH MEDIUM POPS SE NM
PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU ARE STILL
FORECAST THURSDAY DESPITE HIGHS AND LOWS WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES.
BY FRIDAY, WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GUADALUPES AND MARFA PLATEAU ARE FORECAST
AS MEDIUM TO HIGH POPS RETREAT TO ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF PECOS
RIVER. POPS OVER THE WEEKEND DECREASE AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING
INTENSIFIES, WITH A RETURN TO HIGHS LOWER TO MID 90S, MID 90S TO
UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, AND MID TO UPPER 80S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWS IN MID TO UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH WIND
TRAJECTORIES SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHERLY, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F, WITH LESS HUMID
AIR ACCOMPANYING DECREASING POPS EVEN AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
NBM AND LOWER PERCENTILE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK/BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHERE AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE
INDICATED IN LOWER PERCENTILE ENSEMBLES. PROBABILITY OF 0.50" TO
0.75" OVER THESE REGIONS HAS DECREASED TO MEDIUM TO HIGH FROM
EARLIER HIGH PROBABILITIES IN PREVIOUS RUNS, EVEN AS PROBABILITIES
OF 1" OR HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN MEDIUM TO HIGH, AND SPREADS HAVE
INCREASED FROM 0.75" TO 1.25" FROM EARLIER 0.25" TO 0.75".
THEREFORE, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION,
TIMING, AND MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL THIS WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK HOW FORECASTS OF RAINFALL FOR THIS WEEK CHANGE IN SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. YET AGAIN, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE,
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT MAF AND CNM. FOR THESE
TWO SITES, IMPACTFUL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 98 74 95 70 / 10 10 30 50
CARLSBAD 94 71 89 68 / 20 10 50 50
DRYDEN 97 74 94 72 / 10 10 10 30
FORT STOCKTON 94 72 91 68 / 20 20 30 40
GUADALUPE PASS 86 67 83 62 / 30 10 50 40
HOBBS 92 69 88 66 / 20 20 50 60
MARFA 85 64 83 63 / 70 40 60 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 73 94 70 / 10 10 30 50
ODESSA 95 72 93 69 / 10 20 30 50
WINK 95 72 91 69 / 20 20 30 50
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...13
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