151
FXUS64 KMAF 291915
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
- DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO MID WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
SMALL HAIL EXPECTED IN STRONGER STORMS.
- FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS.
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO MID WEEK, THEN A WARMING TREND IN BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. TERRAIN FORCING IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS (WHERE STORM
CHANCES ARE 50-70%), THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER (20-40%). YET AGAIN, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PRIOR CONVECTION COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MIGRATE
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS (10-30% CHANCE, WITH CHANCES
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST). OF COURSE, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. STORMS BEGIN TO WANE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOWS ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST.
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TOMORROW, WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL CHANGES. A
WEAK FRONT (MORE OF A WIND SHIFT) WILL NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON, PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. AS A RESULT, MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (40-60% CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE REGION). BECAUSE SOIL
MOISTURE IS HIGH FROM PREVIOUS RAINS, STORM TRAINING IS EXPECTED,
AND PWATS ARE STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS (MAF'S SOUNDING
THIS MORNING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.40 INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE), A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST
OF THE PECOS RIVER AND CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS WATCH EXTENDS FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE, ALSO EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS AND LOWS
TOMORROW (ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY) DUE TO A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A RAINY ONE FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. A WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK
SHORT WAVES UNDERCUT THE RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE FED INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND HELP KEEP UP MONSOON-LIKE RAIN CHANCES
FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRETY OF THE LONG TERM. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL SEE 30-50% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE, SO RAIN WILL NOT BE
CONSTANT AND NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAIN.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A MOST LIKELY SOLUTION OF A HALF IN TO AN INCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNT TO THE EAST
FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU. HOWEVER, WITH THE
PATTERN SHOWING A CONTINUED LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FLOW, TRAINING
STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. FURTHER FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD, PARTICULARLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM SHOWERS
AND STORMS, DAYTIME HIGHS END UP BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BIG
BEND STILL REACH INTO THE LOW 90S. LOW TO MID 90S RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL EACH NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS ON AND LIMITS COOLING.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. YET AGAIN, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE,
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT MAF AND CNM. FOR THESE
TWO SITES, IMPACTFUL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 95 70 89 / 10 30 60 40
CARLSBAD 71 89 67 80 / 20 40 70 60
DRYDEN 74 94 71 85 / 10 20 30 40
FORT STOCKTON 71 91 68 83 / 20 20 50 50
GUADALUPE PASS 66 82 62 75 / 20 40 50 50
HOBBS 69 88 66 82 / 30 50 70 60
MARFA 64 83 62 76 / 50 50 50 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 93 70 87 / 10 30 60 40
ODESSA 72 91 68 85 / 20 30 60 40
WINK 72 91 68 84 / 30 30 60 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANDREWS-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY
COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...13
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