503
FXUS64 KMAF 011821
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
121 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND ALL OF WEST TEXAS EXCEPT TERRELL COUNTY.
- EXCELLENT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
DECREASING INTO NEXT WEEK, AND CENTERED ON THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR-NORMAL SATURDAY, THEN
COOL SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
A WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY HAVE
BROUGHT A SHIELD OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WITH THAT IN MIND, THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL HOLD FOR NOW AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR
CERTAIN ZONES THIS EVENING. MANY SPOTS WILL SEE, THROUGH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL, ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH OR MORE OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO SOME SPOTS SEEING
CLOSER TO AN INCH OR MORE.
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HOLD ON IN
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WHERE ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN NEARLY
AREAWIDE WITH THE ONLY WARM SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND IN BIG
BEND.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
AFTER A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS,
LEADING TO WARMER, AND EVENTUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY,
PRIMARILY REACHING INTO THE 80S, WITH 70S HOLDING STEADY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON THE 4TH OF JULY TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WHILE 80S HANG
AROUND ELSEWHERE. BY SATURDAY, 90S BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE RIDGE DRIFTS
SLIGHTLY WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING HIGHS TO
HOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL, IF NOT A TOUCH BELOW.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING US OUR BEST SHOT AT RAINFALL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. POPS AREAWIDE RANGE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 50-80%. THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES LIE NEAR AND OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. RAIN CHANCES ON
THE 4TH OF JULY BEGIN TO DROP OFF FOR MANY. THOUGH, THE MOUNTAINS
AND BIG BEND REGION MAY STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (40-60%). WITH ANY LUCK, LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE NICE FOR ENJOYING SOME GRILLING AND FIREWORKS!
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS AWAIT MOST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT IFR VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS RISE TO NEAR VFR AND MAY SCATTERED TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS DROP BACK TO LOW MVFR/IFR HEIGHTS. TS MAY
BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY HEAVIER SHOWERS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/IMPACT TO TERMINAL, SO PRECLUDED MENTION IN THIS ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 69 80 69 85 / 60 50 50 60
CARLSBAD 66 76 67 83 / 90 80 60 50
DRYDEN 70 83 71 85 / 60 50 50 60
FORT STOCKTON 67 81 68 84 / 50 70 50 80
GUADALUPE PASS 61 72 63 78 / 80 70 50 50
HOBBS 65 76 66 82 / 80 70 60 50
MARFA 62 75 63 78 / 70 90 70 90
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 80 70 85 / 70 50 60 50
ODESSA 68 78 69 84 / 70 60 60 50
WINK 68 80 69 85 / 70 60 60 50
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-
BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-
CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-
EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS-SCURRY-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-
WINKLER.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN
LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93
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