363
FXUS64 KMAF 030502
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES (40-70% GENERALLY, UP TO 90% IN THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS) CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TO/ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HELPED BRING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO SO MUCH RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM MAF CONTINUED TO SHOW PWATS AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS WELL AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING UP RICH GULF MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. OVERALL, PRETTY MUCH EVERYONE HAS A 40-70% CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS (WITH THE BEST CHANCES - AROUND
90% - IN/NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW). THOUGH
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERALL, MOST LOCATIONS CAN
STILL EXPECT TO RECEIVE ANOTHER 0.5-1.0 INCH OF RAIN (THOUGH OF
COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR). NATURALLY, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR.
CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES PRETTY
TIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW,
ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. GOING INTO THE LONG
TERM, A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BECOME DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE LEFTOVER TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WHAT
WAS TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY. INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK MONSOONAL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND NEW MEXICO. AS THAT RIDGE DEVELOPS, HIGHS EACH DAY
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE. A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN REACH THE LOW 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING STAY ABOUT THE SAME IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. RAIN CHANCES FALL SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE PERMIAN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW(10-30%) THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
MVFR OR BELOW CIGS OVER UPPER TRANS PECOS FROM BEGINNING OF TAF
PERIOD INTO 09Z, WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ELSEWHERE FROM START OF
TAF PERIOD. VFR VIS EXCEPT FOR MVFR VIS OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/STORMS
AND MIST OR FOG. EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM STORMS AT TERMINALS ARE
HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM MVFR
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 18Z-00Z EXCEPT FOR EASTERNMOST PERMIAN
BASIN, WHERE THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS REMAIN MVFR OR LOWER.
WINDS LIGHT AND BELOW 15 KNOTS FOR TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH
14Z-20Z AND REMAINING SOUTHEASTERLY INTO END OF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 84 70 91 72 / 60 40 30 10
CARLSBAD 81 68 92 69 / 70 30 10 0
DRYDEN 83 72 91 72 / 70 40 50 10
FORT STOCKTON 84 70 91 71 / 70 20 40 10
GUADALUPE PASS 76 65 85 68 / 70 40 10 0
HOBBS 81 68 91 68 / 70 30 10 0
MARFA 78 65 83 63 / 90 40 40 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 71 92 72 / 60 30 20 10
ODESSA 82 70 91 72 / 50 20 20 10
WINK 84 70 92 70 / 60 20 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94
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