571
FXUS64 KMAF 031801
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
101 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES (40-70%, UP TO 90% IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND) CONTINUE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/BIG BEND.
- ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY (20-30%, UP TO 50% IN THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS).
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TO/ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR TROPICAL AIRMASS LINGERS ON. PWATS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, WITH MAF'S 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWING 1.83 IN OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (FOR REFERENCE, THE ALL-TIME
DAILY MAXIMUM FOR TODAY IS 1.90 IN). AS A RESULT, FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE
EVENING, AND THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z TONIGHT.
THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END STARTING TOMORROW AS
TROUGHING TO THE WEST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. A
FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED IN
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS,
BUT CHANCES ARE OVERALL QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
LOOK TO DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET (10-40%, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES IN/AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS). IN OTHER WORDS, MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY RAIN-FREE (ALBEIT MUGGY) FOR 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES TOMORROW NIGHT! OTHERWISE, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW-TO-MID
90S EXPECTED FOR MOST AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS A GOOD DEAL QUIETER THAN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OVERALL. RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR ZERO PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
(10-20%) NEAR/IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY, AN INVERTED
TROUGH OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF TEXAS COULD INITIATE A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA, THOUGH CHANCES
FOR THIS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS, UP TO
50% IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS). ON THE FLIP SIDE, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY, MAINLY THE PRODUCT OF UPSLOPE FLOW
(20-40%). AFTER THAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PRETTY MUCH SQUASHES
ANY FURTHER CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED, SAVE PERHAPS IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED, WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS/ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY FORECAST FOR MOST SITES, THOUGH MAF SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (WITH TEMPORARY DROPS TO
IFR DUE TO ONGOING SHOWERS). ADDITIONAL TEMPORARY DROPS TO MVFR
CAN BE EXPECTED AT OTHER SITES DUE TO ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA (ESPECIALLY AT INK AND HOB, WHERE SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HISTORY
OF BEING HEAVIER). OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING UP LATER TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AT WESTERN SITES
TONIGHT, THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT MAF
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 92 72 95 / 40 20 10 10
CARLSBAD 70 93 70 97 / 20 10 0 0
DRYDEN 72 92 72 95 / 30 30 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 71 92 71 96 / 20 20 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 66 86 68 90 / 30 10 0 0
HOBBS 68 92 68 94 / 50 10 0 0
MARFA 65 84 63 90 / 30 30 0 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 94 72 96 / 30 10 0 10
ODESSA 70 93 71 94 / 30 10 0 0
WINK 70 94 70 97 / 20 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL
BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN
CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-
LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA-
SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13
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