430
FXUS64 KMAF 040010
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
710 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 702 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES (40-70%, UP TO 90% IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND) CONTINUE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/BIG BEND.
- ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY (20-30%, UP TO 50% IN THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS).
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TO/ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR TROPICAL AIRMASS LINGERS ON. PWATS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, WITH MAF'S 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWING 1.83 IN OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (FOR REFERENCE, THE ALL-TIME
DAILY MAXIMUM FOR TODAY IS 1.90 IN). AS A RESULT, FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE
EVENING, AND THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z TONIGHT.
THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END STARTING TOMORROW AS
TROUGHING TO THE WEST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. A
FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED IN
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS,
BUT CHANCES ARE OVERALL QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
LOOK TO DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET (10-40%, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES IN/AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS). IN OTHER WORDS, MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY RAIN-FREE (ALBEIT MUGGY) FOR 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES TOMORROW NIGHT! OTHERWISE, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW-TO-MID
90S EXPECTED FOR MOST AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS A GOOD DEAL QUIETER THAN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OVERALL. RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR ZERO PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
(10-20%) NEAR/IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY, AN INVERTED
TROUGH OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF TEXAS COULD INITIATE A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA, THOUGH CHANCES
FOR THIS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS, UP TO
50% IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS). ON THE FLIP SIDE, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY, MAINLY THE PRODUCT OF UPSLOPE FLOW
(20-40%). AFTER THAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PRETTY MUCH SQUASHES
ANY FURTHER CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED, SAVE PERHAPS IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED, WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS/ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, THOUGH WE DO EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING NEAR KHOB AND KMAF. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT THE KPEQ AND KFST TERMINAL THIS EVENING, WITH
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO 06Z AT KINK
AND KMAF. LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN CEILING/VISIBILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. VFR LOOKS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
LOW SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS,
BIG BEND, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 83 72 92 72 / 60 40 20 10
CARLSBAD 82 70 93 70 / 60 20 10 0
DRYDEN 84 72 92 72 / 60 30 30 10
FORT STOCKTON 84 71 92 71 / 60 20 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS 77 66 86 68 / 50 30 10 0
HOBBS 82 68 92 68 / 50 50 10 0
MARFA 78 65 84 63 / 80 30 30 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 84 72 94 72 / 60 30 10 0
ODESSA 82 70 93 71 / 60 30 10 0
WINK 85 70 94 70 / 50 20 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR ANDREWS-
BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-
CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-
EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN
LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...21
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