180
FXUS64 KMAF 201019
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UP TODAY AS UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATES OVER OUR REGION.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST WEST OF
THE PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL
LIE OVER AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO HIGH (10-70%) PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE AHEAD FOR MANY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. GREATEST
CHANCES LOOK TO STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES, THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS, BUT THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO
AFFECT MATTERS HERE VERY MUCH.
INSTEAD, THICKNESSES CONTINUE INCREASING TODAY, AND MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST. EVEN SO, HIGHS
LOOK TO TOP OUT ONLY ~ 3-5 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. UNFORTUNATELY, A
LLJ IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUD TO RETARD RADIATIONAL
COOLING, YIELDING UNCOMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS 5-7 F ABOVE NORMAL,
AND NEAR RECORD WARM LOWS. MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
UP FROM MEXICO, NUDGING THE RIDGE EAST A BIT, DECREASING THICKNESSES
AND SHAVING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS
AND CONCENTRATED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. A REPEAT IS IN STORE FOR
MONDAY, ONLY W/THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO,
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER, AND FARTHER EAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD , THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO ROLL ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO OUR REGION, THEN TAKING A TURN NORTHEAST BEFORE EXITING NEAR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER-LOW WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. COMBINE THE
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW, LOW TO
HIGH (10-70%) RAIN CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OUR AREA EACH
OF THESE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. BEST RAIN CHANCES (30-70%) WILL LIE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, ESPECIALLY IN
AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN, EVENTUALLY DROPPING OFF BY THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LOW (10-20%) CHANCES NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS, WITH LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. UPPER-RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 70S ELSEWHERE EACH NIGHT. SOMETHING
INTERESTING TO NOTE ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT'S LOW IS THE POTENTIAL TO TIE
OR BREAK THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE. THE LOW TO BEAT IS 78
DEGREES. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 77. ONLY TIME WILL
TELL!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, W/BASES ~ 4.5-7 KFT AGL. MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 75 97 74 / 0 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 99 73 97 71 / 10 20 30 30
DRYDEN 98 76 96 74 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 100 74 97 71 / 20 10 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS 90 69 88 66 / 20 20 50 40
HOBBS 98 72 96 69 / 10 20 20 20
MARFA 91 66 87 63 / 50 20 70 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 76 96 73 / 0 10 10 20
ODESSA 98 75 96 72 / 10 10 10 20
WINK 99 74 97 72 / 10 10 20 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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