707
FXUS64 KMAF 201902
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
202 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FROM THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL LIE OVER
AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO HIGH (10-70%) PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE AHEAD FOR MANY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. GREATEST
CHANCES LOOK TO STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
RADAR IS AGAIN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THOUGH AS THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
GREATER COVERAGE, ALSO SPREADING FARTHER EAST...POSSIBLY INTO THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY ALLOWING US TO HIT
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INCREASING INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS PREVENT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL DRIFT WEST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEST TEXAS MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS COULD SHAVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF
HIGHS AND BRING THEM TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
IN THE LONG TERM, HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. 500MB HEIGHTS BELOW 590DAM SUGGEST HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL CONTINUING THE RELATIVELY MILD SUMMER
WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR.
BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE OUT EAST BUILDS BACK INTO TEXAS INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND THUS HIGHS CREEP BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS. CURRENT MODELS PLACE THE NEWLY FORMED HIGH CENTER
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, PERHAPS FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT EASTERLY
FLOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE 90S. SHOULD THE HIGH CENTER LOCATE EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH THEN THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW WOULD BE SHUT OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 100S. REGARDLESS,
THE HIGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT RAIN CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO
LATE IN THE WEEK.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE, -TSRA
PROB30S WERE INCLUDED AT MOST TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO ADDED TO FST
DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A STORM OR TWO OCCURRING AT THE
TERMINAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 97 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 74 96 70 91 / 20 40 40 30
DRYDEN 76 96 75 94 / 10 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 75 97 73 93 / 20 40 20 30
GUADALUPE PASS 69 87 66 82 / 20 50 40 50
HOBBS 72 96 68 90 / 20 40 30 30
MARFA 66 86 64 83 / 30 70 50 70
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 96 74 93 / 20 20 20 10
ODESSA 75 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 20
WINK 74 96 71 92 / 20 40 30 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11
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