825
FXUS64 KMAF 210447
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FROM THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL LIE OVER
AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO HIGH (10-70%) PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE AHEAD FOR MANY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. GREATEST
CHANCES LOOK TO STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
RADAR IS AGAIN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THOUGH AS THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
GREATER COVERAGE, ALSO SPREADING FARTHER EAST...POSSIBLY INTO THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY ALLOWING US TO HIT
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INCREASING INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS PREVENT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL DRIFT WEST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEST TEXAS MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS COULD SHAVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF
HIGHS AND BRING THEM TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
IN THE LONG TERM, HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. 500MB HEIGHTS BELOW 590DAM SUGGEST HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL CONTINUING THE RELATIVELY MILD SUMMER
WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR.
BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE OUT EAST BUILDS BACK INTO TEXAS INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND THUS HIGHS CREEP BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS. CURRENT MODELS PLACE THE NEWLY FORMED HIGH CENTER
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, PERHAPS FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT EASTERLY
FLOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE 90S. SHOULD THE HIGH CENTER LOCATE EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH THEN THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW WOULD BE SHUT OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 100S. REGARDLESS,
THE HIGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT RAIN CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO
LATE IN THE WEEK.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW,
EXCEPT IN AREAS OF CONVECTION, THE BEST CHANCES OF WILL LOOK
POSSIBLE AT KPEQ THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, W/BASES ~ 4.5-7
KFT AGL. MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 98 74 96 / 0 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 74 96 71 91 / 10 40 20 40
DRYDEN 76 98 75 95 / 10 20 20 20
FORT STOCKTON 74 97 73 93 / 20 40 20 40
GUADALUPE PASS 69 87 65 82 / 20 50 40 50
HOBBS 73 95 68 92 / 20 40 20 20
MARFA 67 88 64 85 / 20 70 40 70
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 97 74 94 / 10 20 10 20
ODESSA 75 96 73 94 / 10 20 10 20
WINK 75 96 72 92 / 20 30 20 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...99
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