557
FXUS64 KMAF 211728
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10-60%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FROM THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL LIE
OVER AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MEDIUM (10-60%) RAIN CHANCES
ARE AHEAD FOR MANY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GREATEST
CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER EACH AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOKS TO RETURN
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE STILL CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER GULF COAST, THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE
WAY BEYOND WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS STILL APPARENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS, BUT THIS
DOESN'T LOOK TO AFFECT MATTERS HERE VERY MUCH.
INSTEAD, A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP FROM MEXICO TODAY,
NUDGING THE RIDGE EAST A BIT AND DECREASING THICKNESSES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS 2-3 F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. NBM WAS SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO COOL YESTERDAY, SO WE'LL STICK TO THE WARMER SIDE OF
IT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT SAID, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD TOP OUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT, A LLJ IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP, AND WILL COMBINE WITH
PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUD TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER,
STARTING FROM LOWER HIGHS TODAY, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS SHOULD AVERAGE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING'S NEAR RECORD WARM
LOWS. TUESDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION PERSISTS, DECREASING
THICKNESSES EVEN FURTHER, YIELDING PERHAPS THE COOLEST DAY THIS
FORECAST AS HIGHS COME IN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
CONVECTION YESTERDAY DEVELOPED A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WAS
ANTICIPATED, AND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH, A REPEAT SEEMS LIKELY TODAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO CONTINUE INVOF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
AREAWIDE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY TAKES A TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, PROGRESSING ALONG THE EDGE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE LOW WILL EXIT NEAR THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE UPPER LOW, OTHER
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSVERSE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM (10-60%) RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BEST (30-60%) RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIE WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, MAXIMIZING OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS, CLOUD COVERAGE, AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LOW TO MID 90S
ELSEWHERE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER OUR REGION DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND A TOUCH BEYOND THE CENTURY
MARK RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS RIVERS. RAIN CHANCES BECOME
RESTRICTED TO AREAS IN AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS LATE THIS WEEK,
EVENTUALLY DROPPING OFF OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30S AT EACH TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 7-12 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 97 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 20
CARLSBAD 96 72 91 69 / 30 20 40 40
DRYDEN 97 75 94 75 / 10 10 20 10
FORT STOCKTON 97 72 93 72 / 40 20 40 30
GUADALUPE PASS 87 65 82 64 / 40 30 50 50
HOBBS 95 69 91 69 / 30 30 30 30
MARFA 87 64 85 63 / 60 30 60 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 74 94 75 / 20 10 20 20
ODESSA 95 74 93 74 / 20 20 30 30
WINK 95 72 92 72 / 30 30 30 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13
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