064
FXUS64 KMAF 221128
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
- THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN THIS FORECAST WILL BE TODAY/TONIGHT,
RANGING FROM 10-20% IN THE PERMIAN BASIN TO 60-70% IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
- AS A RESULT OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY THIS FORECAST, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. THESE WERE
BROUGHT TO US COURTESY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD OUR AREA OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS, ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND OTHER SMALLER DISTURBANCES, COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT, PROMOTE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE BEST ODDS OF SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WHERE POPS CURRENTLY SIT BETWEEN 40-70%. AREAS
EAST OF THE PECOS WILL HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) THIS AFTERNOON.
DURING THE EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) AGAIN WEST OF
THE PECOS. TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND HEAD TOWARD OKLAHOMA. BEFORE IT
DEPARTS AND TAKES OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH IT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION WILL HAVE A LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) CHANCE
OF SEEING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THE BULLSEYE FOR RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
ASIDE FROM RAIN CHANCES, THE LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND
TOMORROW. HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST. AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING TO MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ENJOY
THESE CONDITIONS WHILE THEY LAST! HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER AWAITS IN
THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS ON TAP FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
CHIHUAHUA/COAHUILA EAST TO THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH INTO NEXT WEEK, W/THE
LREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CENTERING NEAR THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WITH FRIDAY BEING PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY
THIS FORECAST AS TRIPLE DIGITS DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
PERMIAN BASIN. EVEN SO, HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY AROUND 5 F ABOVE
NORMAL, AND NOT WARM ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEAT PRODUCTS. OF
COURSE, THERE'S ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF DRYING SOILS HAVING A
POSITIVE FEEDBACK ON INCREASING TEMPERATURES FURTHER, BUT THIS
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS YET. AFTER FRIDAY, THICKNESSES
COME DOWN A BIT, AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. UNFORTUNATELY, A RECURRING LLJ
EACH NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS UNCOMFORTABLY WARM...AROUND 5-6 F ABOVE
NORMAL.
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED, RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED ARE SLIM-TO-
NONE, AND SLIM HAS LEFT THE BUILDING. ABOUT THE ONLY PLACE
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED IS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WHERE CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. PROB30S HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
AT MOST SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED, BUT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 74 96 75 / 20 20 10 0
CARLSBAD 93 70 94 71 / 40 40 10 0
DRYDEN 95 75 97 75 / 20 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 93 71 94 73 / 40 20 30 10
GUADALUPE PASS 83 64 85 68 / 50 40 20 0
HOBBS 92 69 92 70 / 40 30 10 0
MARFA 84 63 85 63 / 60 40 50 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 74 95 75 / 20 20 10 10
ODESSA 93 73 94 74 / 30 20 10 10
WINK 93 71 93 71 / 40 20 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...95
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