358
FXUS64 KMAF 230527
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. STORMS UNLIKELY
TO BE SEVERE, BUT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS CONTINUING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA OF THE COURSE OF TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DURING THAT TIME, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS, SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND CONTAIN FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PRESIDIO AND BREWSTER
COUNTIES. OVERALL FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TOMORROW, RAIN
CHANCES DROP FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES(30-50%) HOLDING ON OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LIKE TODAY,
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE, BUT MAY STILL
BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. HIGHS FOR
TOMORROW END UP IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL SETTLE NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
HIGHS HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER, POPS LOWER, AND WINDS
MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND
COMPARED TO FORECAST RUNS FROM 24 HOURS PRIOR, BUT OTHERWISE THE
LONG TERM REMAINS ON TRACK TO HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
THURSDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS OVER UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN IN ADDITION TO ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE, WITH 80S HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND LOWER TO MID 90S
ELSEWHERE. POPS ONLY INCREASE TO LOW TO MEDIUM OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN
AND MESOSCALE TERRAIN INDUCED CIRCULATIONS, AND WANE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE
BROKEN TO SCATTERED CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL SOLAR HEATING IN
SOME REGIONS, MID TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WILL EXERT LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION AND WARMING,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, MID
70S TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. FRIDAY WARMS UP EVEN MORE
AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. TRIPLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST ALONG PECOS
RIVER, EASTERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN (INCLUDING MIDLAND-
ODESSA), AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE (HIGHS APPROACHING 110 F IN THE
BIG BEND), WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE APART FROM 80S OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE NM PLAINS.
THIS WEEKEND, A SLIGHT "COOLING" TREND IN HIGHS TAKES PLACE AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM UPPER 50S F
TO LOWER 60S F (UPPER 40S F TO LOWER 50S F WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN) SATURDAY BACK TO THE UPPER 50S F TO MID 60S F (LOWER TO
MID 50S F WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN) SUNDAY. HIGHS ALSO WILL DROP
FROM VALUES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY TO MID TO UPPER 90S, 80S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND TRIPLE DIGITS PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO THE BIG BEND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR EVEN AS POPS DECREASE TO NEAR ZERO EVEN
OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER, DUE TO
HUMID, UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT, SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN LLJS AND A MORE
HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING KEEP LOWS WARM
DESPITE THE "COOLER" HIGH TEMPERATURES. EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS
LEVEL OFF AND POPS STAY LOW TO NEAR ZERO AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING
BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. LOWS LIKEWISE REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF LOW TO MEDIUM POPS
THURSDAY INTO EARLY WEEKEND AND NEAR ZERO THEREAFTER, NBM GRIDS
ARE DISPLAYING NO RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM AND WHILE ENSEMBLES
ARE STILL DEPICTING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EVEN IN
THE LOWEST PERCENTILES, NO FURTHER FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE REGION AGAIN SETTLES INTO A DRY PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF THE
"DOG DAYS" OF SUMMER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
GENERALLY, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY PASSING IN AND NEAR CNM AND PEQ. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION, PROB30S AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 75 100 75 / 20 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 92 71 98 71 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 97 75 101 74 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 95 73 99 73 / 30 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 83 67 89 68 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS 91 70 97 69 / 10 10 0 10
MARFA 86 64 91 64 / 40 10 30 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 75 100 76 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 93 74 98 75 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 93 73 99 72 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...95
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