037
FXUS64 KMAF 231717
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN HELPING TO BRING US RAIN CHANCES
IS DEPARTING TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES HANG AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FEW OTHER DISTURBANCES ROLL OVERHEAD, FOLLOWING ALONG
THE FLOW OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW STORMS INITIALLY FIRING IN AND NEAR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THE EVENTUALLY SPREADING
EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD. COVERAGE GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 30-40% IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WHILE 10-20% POPS OVERLAY THE REST
OF OUR REGION. THIS EVENING, 10-20% POPS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY
BECOME STRONG, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
STRONG WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST, WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
UPPER-RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY,
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING RAIN CHANCES AND STARTING A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE
DAVIS' THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE AREAS ELSEWHERE REMAIN DRY.
SPEAKING OF HEAT, TEMPERATURES SHALL CRANK BACK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS FOR THOSE NEAR AND ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE AND PECOS RIVERS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN, WITH 90S EXPECTED FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS STILL IN STORE FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SPAN THE SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL IN
SOUTH TEXAS. DESPITE THIS, LOCAL THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE, MAKING FRIDAY PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST. EVEN
SO, HIGHS WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND 5 F ABOVE NORMAL AS TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PERMIAN BASIN. DESPITE
THIS, CRITERIA FOR HEAT PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE MET.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST, CENTERING
OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO KEEP MOVING WEST
THROUGH WEST TEXAS/MEXICO, DECREASING THICKNESSES AND COOLING THINGS
OFF AFTER FRIDAY. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY, HIGHS SHOULD COME IN RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH, RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL. WHAT MEAGER CHANCES THERE ARE
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND AREAS WEST OF THERE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECASTED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEREFORE, -TSRA PROB30S WERE IMPLEMENTED AT MOST TERMINALS WITH
A TSRA TEMPO AT FST DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THESE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 100 74 101 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 72 97 71 98 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 74 100 74 102 / 20 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 74 99 72 100 / 20 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 68 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 70 97 69 98 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA 64 89 63 92 / 10 40 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 100 75 101 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA 74 99 74 99 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 72 99 72 100 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...11
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