137
FXUS64 KMAF 231826
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
126 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 117 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW AFTER TODAY (10-30%) AND MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS, ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL BE ONE OF
THE LAST DAYS WHERE QUITE A BIT OF LOCATIONS ARE GOING TO SEE
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INITIALIZE IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN LATER TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT MORE OF A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT THAN ANYTHING ELSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES, PWATS REACHING OVER THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
(1.4-1.5 IN), AND SUFFICIENT MOIST MIDRHS SIGNAL HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. STORM MOTIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKER
COMPARED WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, HOWEVER, IT REMAINS SLOW. THE
GREATEST (15-40%) CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOK TO LIE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN THE
GREATER STORM CHANCES COINCIDING WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PLENTIFUL RAINFALL.
TONIGHT, COVERAGE OF STORMS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL
AIR AND SPACE PORT IS 77 DEGREES. THE RECORD "WARM LOW" TEMPERATURE
FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS 78 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2016. THERE IS A LOW
(20-30%) CHANCE FOR THIS RECORD TO BE SHATTERED, BUT STILL A CHANCE
NONETHELESS. BY TOMORROW, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD CREATING A
MORE HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REACH THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
REGIONWIDE. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS DOWN TO THE CHISOS BASIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR
THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING FOR A FEW LOCATIONS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO OUR AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL INCREASE THICKNESSES AND CONTINUE THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND THAT BEGINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT OR AROUND THE CENTURY
MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS (THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL STAY CLOSER TO 90
DEGREES). MEANWHILE, LOWS STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S (ALBEIT A TOUCH
COOLER). AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST, A
WEAKNESS/DISTURBANCE WILL HELP KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL (THE NORMAL HIGH AT MAF IS 96 DEGREES THIS TIME OF
YEAR, AND THE NORMAL LOW IS 73 DEGREES). TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
A BIT MORE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT NEVERTHELESS ONLY
REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (10-30%) BEING GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN (PARTICULARLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS).
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECASTED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEREFORE, -TSRA PROB30S WERE IMPLEMENTED AT MOST TERMINALS WITH
A TSRA TEMPO AT FST DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THESE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 100 74 101 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 72 97 71 98 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 74 100 74 102 / 20 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 74 99 72 100 / 20 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 68 89 68 90 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 70 97 69 97 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA 64 89 63 91 / 10 40 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 100 75 100 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA 74 99 74 99 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 72 99 72 99 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11
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