894
FXUS64 KMAF 240528
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW AFTER TODAY (10-30%) AND MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS, ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL BE ONE OF
THE LAST DAYS WHERE QUITE A BIT OF LOCATIONS ARE GOING TO SEE
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INITIALIZE IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN LATER TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT MORE OF A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT THAN ANYTHING ELSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES, PWATS REACHING OVER THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
(1.4-1.5 IN), AND SUFFICIENT MOIST MIDRHS SIGNAL HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. STORM MOTIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKER
COMPARED WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, HOWEVER, IT REMAINS SLOW. THE
GREATEST (15-40%) CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOK TO LIE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN THE
GREATER STORM CHANCES COINCIDING WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PLENTIFUL RAINFALL.
TONIGHT, COVERAGE OF STORMS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL
AIR AND SPACE PORT IS 77 DEGREES. THE RECORD "WARM LOW" TEMPERATURE
FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS 78 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2016. THERE IS A LOW
(20-30%) CHANCE FOR THIS RECORD TO BE SHATTERED, BUT STILL A CHANCE
NONETHELESS. BY TOMORROW, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD CREATING A
MORE HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REACH THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
REGIONWIDE. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS DOWN TO THE CHISOS BASIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR
THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING FOR A FEW LOCATIONS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO OUR AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL INCREASE THICKNESSES AND CONTINUE THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND THAT BEGINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT OR AROUND THE CENTURY
MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS (THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL STAY CLOSER TO 90
DEGREES). MEANWHILE, LOWS STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S (ALBEIT A TOUCH
COOLER). AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST, A
WEAKNESS/DISTURBANCE WILL HELP KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL (THE NORMAL HIGH AT MAF IS 96 DEGREES THIS TIME OF
YEAR, AND THE NORMAL LOW IS 73 DEGREES). TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
A BIT MORE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT NEVERTHELESS ONLY
REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (10-30%) BEING GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN (PARTICULARLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS).
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES. ONGOING SHOWERS NEAR PEQ
AND FST ARE DIMINISHING. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, WE EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE WITHIN OUR REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
LOCATION, PROB30S AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 74 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 97 71 98 72 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 100 74 102 73 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 99 72 100 73 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 89 68 90 70 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 97 69 97 70 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 89 63 91 64 / 40 10 20 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 99 72 99 73 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95
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