927
FXUS64 KMAF 240752
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD
TO VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (10-30%) AND MAINLY STAY
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THE RIDGE BECOMES OUR DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER, A FEW
MORE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO ROLL IN ALONG ITS WESTERN EDGE. THIS WILL PROVIDE
US WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MAINLY BE
ISOLATED AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. OUR BEST (20-30%) ODDS FOR
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIE OVER AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A 10% CHANCE. BY
THIS EVENING, LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN. OTHERWISE, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HEAT INTO THE UPPER
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS, 90S FOR MOST, WHILE THOSE NEAR AND ALONG
THE PECOS AND THE RIO GRANDE, EVEN A FEW SPOTS IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, TOP OUT IN THE LOW 100S. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD, DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
FRIDAY, UPPER-RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA, NUDGING
UP OUR TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING OUR RAIN CHANCES. LOW (10-30%)
RAIN CHANCES CAN BE FOUND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. HIGHS BEYOND THE CENTURY
MARK ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MORE PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE TRANS PECOS.
THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE,
WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 102-108 DEGREES IN A
FEW LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED LOW (10-20 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND, MARFA
PLATEAU, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS
REGION FRIDAY EVENING, BUT STORMS SHOULD OTHERWISE MOSTLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND AS HOT AS 103-108 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRANSLATE W-NW INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISING TO AT LEAST BETWEEN 1.25"-1.5" OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BIG BEND, TRANS PECOS, MARFA
PLATEAU, AND GUADALUPE/DAVIS MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE POPS CURRENTLY
RANGE BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE
IF THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN IN LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MAY BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 103
DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD/EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAINLY LOOKS TO BECOME CONFINED TO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, WHERE WE
WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE
90S EACH DAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES. ONGOING SHOWERS NEAR PEQ
AND FST ARE DIMINISHING. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, WE EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE WITHIN OUR REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
LOCATION, PROB30S AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 75 100 74 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 97 71 98 71 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 99 74 101 73 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 99 74 100 73 / 20 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 88 68 90 70 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 96 69 97 70 / 10 20 10 10
MARFA 89 64 90 64 / 30 20 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 76 100 74 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 98 75 99 74 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 99 72 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...95
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