754
FXUS64 KMAF 241945
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL
HAIL, BRIEF, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN DECREASE A
FEW DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LOW (10-30%) AND STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECAYING. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
BUT THESE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. HAVE
KEPT THE BROAD 10% POPS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
DENOTE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR EAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY GET. TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST WITH 60S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. INTO FRIDAY, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO HOLD
ON AND CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVERALL LOW (10-30%) FOR OUR
AREA WITH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS HAVING THE HIGHER END OF THOSE
CHANCES. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR MOST WITH
105F+ POSSIBLE IN BIG BEND. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA, BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS EXTEND WEST THROUGH
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND BEYOND BAJA DEL SUR INTO THE
PACIFIC. TO THE SOUTH, AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE MOVING WEST
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS INTO MEXICO. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT ~ 3-5 F ABOVE NORMAL.
EVEN SO, THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
HEAT PRODUCT CRITERIA.
SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH MUSCLES INTO THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS, REDUCING THICKNESSES AND BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
WARM WEATHER, AND PERHAPS THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED AS HIGHS
COME IN RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH
WILL STILL BE EVIDENT, AS HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED
ONLY ~ 2-4 F ABOVE NORMAL. UNFORTUNATELY DURING THE EXTENDED, A
RECURRING LLJ EVERY NIGHT WILL KEEP MIXING IN PLAY, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AN UNCOMFORTABLE 4-5 F ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE.
DESPITE THE INVERTED TROUGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TEPID,
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY, BUT EVEN THEN CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST. IN ADDITION,
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 0.80" BY MIDWEEK, OR JUST
UNDER THE 10TH PERCENTILE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS. TEMPOS INCLUDED FOR ALL BUT MAF
WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST TS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RADAR TRENDS WILL GUIDE NECESSITY FOR
AMENDMENTS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT(~10KT OR LESS) OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 100 73 98 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 71 97 71 99 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 74 101 73 97 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 74 99 73 97 / 20 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 68 90 70 91 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 68 96 70 96 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 64 89 63 91 / 10 30 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 99 73 97 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 74 98 73 96 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 72 99 72 99 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...93
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