717
FXUS64 KMAF 251722
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- STORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY BECOME CONFINED OVER AREAS WEST OF THE
PECOS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA IS SHOWING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 08Z/09Z (3/4AM CDT)
AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (10-50%) ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING DRIVE INSTABILITY ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER/NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS)
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FIRST BEFORE MOVING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S (EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN) FOR MOST WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE REACHING THE
LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS.
HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS TO AT LEAST MENTIONABLE (10-20%) ACROSS
THE WHOLE CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
COLLOCATED WITH INSTABILITY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS ARE FORECAST TO STICK AROUND THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST
(60S MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY'S
AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SOME. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING COULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER/NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN
WITH 5-15% POPS FORECAST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS STILL LOOKS TO PIVOT
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT KEEPING A LOW (20-40 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE BIG
BEND, MARFA PLATEAU, DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VAN HORN
CORRIDOR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH READINGS IN
THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION, EXCEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 103 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO AVERAGE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LINGERING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF)
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER ON MONDAY BEFORE DAILY STORM COVERAGE
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED (10-20 PERCENT) IN COVERAGE AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS TUESDAY-THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENS OVER OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN
THE 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND 100-105 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. TEMPERATURES
TICK UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE
AGAIN, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPECTED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, CONFIDENCE WAS A BIT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO FOR ANY PARTICULAR SITE, SO WENT WITH PROB30 -TSRA FOR EVERY
TERMINAL. ASIDE FROM THIS, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 74 99 74 / 20 20 0 0
CARLSBAD 96 71 98 72 / 20 10 0 0
DRYDEN 101 73 98 74 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 98 73 98 72 / 20 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 89 69 91 69 / 20 10 10 0
HOBBS 95 70 96 70 / 20 20 0 0
MARFA 89 63 90 63 / 40 20 20 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 74 98 74 / 20 20 0 0
ODESSA 97 73 96 73 / 20 20 0 0
WINK 98 73 99 73 / 20 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...13
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