426
FXUS64 KMAF 251812
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
112 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCES (30-40%) ARE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WITH 10-25% CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- STORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY BECOME CONFINED OVER AREAS WEST OF THE
PECOS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH SITTING OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN, AS WELL AS SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT. THE MAF 12Z
SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES,
WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOURCES OF WEAK LIFT (PLUS UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOCATIONS ACHIEVING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE) COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS, DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WHERE RAIN
CHANCES ARE BEST (30- 40%). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE TRANS-PECOS
AND PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
DUE IN PART TO OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION (10-25% CHANCES IN
THESE LOCATIONS). LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERNS, AND SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AT OR NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK TODAY FOR MOST, THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
FORECASTED EARLIER THIS WEEK DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S GENERALLY. RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO BUILD THIS DIRECTION TOMORROW, WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TODAY'S (LOWS WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR). AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES, RIGHT NOW THE NBM IS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PROBABILITIES
OUTSIDE OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS (10-30%). THAT BEING SAID,
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 75-90TH PERCENTILE,
RIDGING WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK OVERALL, AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS BEING THE CASE (AND SINCE SOME CAMS, INCLUDING THE HRRR, HINT
AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN), RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED A BIT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA (10-
20%).
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLATED TO BROADEN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND MANEUVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
AT ABOUT 30-50% AND A BIT LOWER (10-20%) ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
AND PERMIAN BASIN. SOME MOISTURE IS SHOVED TO THE WEST AND PWATS
FALL DRASTICALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
LOWEST DURING THIS TIME FOR THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
MOISTURE RETURNING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN BY THE
END OF THE COMING WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL STILL BE A
FIXTURE, BUT REMAIN WEAK WITH UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVES. THUS, SOME
ASCENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. NBM HAS A HINT OF RAIN NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
JUST BROAD 10-20% POPS FOR THE CWA. WILL KEEP THIS AS IS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT IF A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE ONE WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY DOES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK, POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE
AGAIN, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPECTED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, CONFIDENCE WAS A BIT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO FOR ANY PARTICULAR SITE, SO WENT WITH PROB30 -TSRA FOR EVERY
TERMINAL. ASIDE FROM THIS, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 99 74 94 / 20 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 71 98 73 94 / 0 20 10 10
DRYDEN 74 98 74 94 / 10 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 73 99 73 93 / 20 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 69 91 69 87 / 0 10 0 10
HOBBS 70 97 71 91 / 10 20 10 10
MARFA 64 90 63 87 / 10 30 10 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 98 74 93 / 20 10 10 10
ODESSA 74 97 74 92 / 20 10 10 10
WINK 73 99 73 93 / 20 20 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...13
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