001
FXUS64 KMAF 290453
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A MEDIUM TO
HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
- THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70%) CONFIDENCE IN 0.5" TO 1"
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THERE IS LOW (10-30%) CONFIDENCE IN 1.5" OR HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE. URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS ARE MOST
AT RISK FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW FOR MOST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT AND FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SETTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST. THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERING ITSELF OVER SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO, TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL, BUT END UP A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE BEST RAIN CHANCES(30-40%)
ARE FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH
LOWER(10-30%) CHANCES FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TO THE STOCKTON
PLATEAU AND BIG BEND.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LINGER INTO THE
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND LIGHTNING, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE LONG TERM BELOW DETAILS MORE ABOUT RAIN
CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES JUST IN TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. AS A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS SETUP ALLOWS FOR A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ENTERING OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
SHOULD BE COMMON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOLDING ON NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, DAYTIME HEATING AND ASCENT
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A MEDIUM (40-60%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS INITIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY
TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND
LASTING INTO MONDAY FOR YOUR LABOR DAY. THIS IS BROUGHT ON BY A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL LINGERING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO BE EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-
80%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. WITH ALL OF
THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WELL
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED. LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD BE
COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE AREA, OFFERING A NICE CHANGE FROM THE HEAT.
WITH ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION, BENEFICIAL RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY.
THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70%) CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE REGION
SEEING 0.5" TO 1" OF RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER AMOUNTS QUICKLY LOWERS WITH ONLY A LOW
(10-30%) CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS TO RECEIVE OVER 1.5" OF RAINFALL. WITH
THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF FLOODING, STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP, BUT THIS THREAT REMAINS LOW.
OVERALL, IT WILL BE A SOGGY LABOR DAY WEEKEND, SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
AFTER LABOR DAY, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY, CLOSING BACK IN ON THE 90S. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE FORECAST, ONLY A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE
RELATIVELY DRIER THAN THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUED RAINFALL SHOULD
HOPEFULLY CONTINUE TO AID IN CLOSING OUR RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A FEW TS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN CURRENTLY, BUT
LOOK TO MISS KMAF AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS HOWEVER TO THE NORTH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE NM TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 95 72 93 / 10 20 20 60
CARLSBAD 72 97 71 94 / 10 30 40 50
DRYDEN 75 101 75 100 / 0 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 73 99 72 97 / 0 20 10 30
GUADALUPE PASS 70 88 66 85 / 10 30 40 60
HOBBS 68 94 67 91 / 10 30 50 60
MARFA 63 90 62 89 / 0 30 20 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 97 73 95 / 10 20 30 50
ODESSA 74 97 72 95 / 10 20 30 50
WINK 73 98 72 95 / 10 20 30 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...29
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