219
FXUS64 KMAF 311717
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- MODERATE TO HIGH (50-75%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
PECOS.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER MONDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
ONCE AGAIN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING CONTINUE
SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER, WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS LOCATED IN
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND AN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING CLUSTER IN THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
COMPLEX IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (ESPECIALLY SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS). THAT BEING SAID, 30-
50% RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN RETAINED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WHICH IS
WHERE THE COMPLEX IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE (ASSUMING IT CAN MAINTAIN
ITSELF LONG ENOUGH).
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY NEAR/ALONG THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. RAIN CHANCES
RANGE FROM 50-75% FROM THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
TOWARDS TERRELL COUNTY AND THE BIG BEND. LOWER CHANCES (10-40%) ARE
FORECAST FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN, WHERE ONLY REMNANT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED (AT BEST). AS WITH SATURDAY, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND. THAT BEING SAID, WHAT HAPPENS MONDAY WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY, MEANING CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY'S RAIN FORECAST IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S! AFTER LABOR DAY, THE
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE BENIGN. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM...
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
BY TUESDAY, EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES DROP TO NEAR-ZERO ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS A DRYING TREND COMMENCES. THAT BEING SAID,
AT LEAST LOW (10-20%) CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THE NBM HAS TRENDED UP ON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED, THOUGH ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOR MAF).
WE HAVE LET THE NBM RIDE FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY. ENSEMBLES ALSO DEPICT A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TRAVERSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM COULD HELP PUSH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. MANY
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THAT SOLUTION IN RECENT RUNS (THOUGH AT
LEAST A MINOR COOL-DOWN IS STILL SUGGESTED). IN ANY CASE, THAT IS
YET ANOTHER THING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON, ALONG WITH ANY RAIN
CHANCES THAT MAY ACCOMPANY SUCH A SYSTEM.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE LOW CONFIDENCE. CNM HOB, AND INK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE ANY IMPACTS LATER. MAF AND PEQ MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT MOST THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. FST IS
THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE IMPACTS, BUT TIMING VARIES GREATLY
BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES, CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 88 64 92 / 20 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 66 86 64 89 / 20 20 0 10
DRYDEN 70 86 68 92 / 60 70 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 68 85 63 90 / 60 50 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 62 78 62 81 / 40 30 0 10
HOBBS 63 85 62 89 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA 61 78 55 82 / 40 70 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 88 66 92 / 20 10 0 0
ODESSA 68 87 65 91 / 30 10 0 0
WINK 66 88 64 91 / 30 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...91
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