468
FXUS64 KMAF 311740
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-60%) CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INTO LABOR DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-10.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH RAIN RATES OF
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH LABOR DAY, THEN CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONGSIDE DRIER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF RECENT FORECASTS HAS
CLEARED THE REGION AND ENTERED NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS ALLOWED COOLER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH ANY 90S CONFINED TO NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE. A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. DESPITE OUR REGION BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AIDING IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH, BUT LOWER-LEVEL FLOW HAS
BECOME NORTHERLY AND DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND, WHILE A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) OF RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION, THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE
FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND
GREATER MOISTURE.
LABOR DAY BEGINS A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT
LONG GONE, RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND NEGLIGIBLE FORCING WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. WHILE A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN IS
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. THIS MEANS THAT MOST WILL
NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL IN THIS CASE. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE BIG
BEND, RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER (40-60%) DUE TO THE RELATIVE
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT. OUTSIDE OF THIS, TEMPERATURES HOVER
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SUNDAY KEEPING THE COOLER, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, INCREASING
THEIR FLOODING RISK. THAT SAID, THE EXACT COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTION REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE, SO IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN
POINT WHO MAY BE MOST AT RISK. THAT BEING SAID, 1 TO 2 INCH PER
HOUR RAINFALL RATES MAINTAIN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS OR REGIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
PRIOR RAINFALL. THANKFULLY, BEYOND THE SHORT TERM THE FLOODING
RISK COMES TO AN END.
-CHEHAK
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
PROBABILITY OF RAIN STAYS LOW (<30%) THIS WEEK BEFORE LOW TO
MEDIUM (15% TO 25%) RAIN PROBABILITIES RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PROVIDED
NEAR SURFACE LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY THIS
WEEK WILL BE DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, THE LAST OF THE HIGHER RAIN PROBABILITIES
FROM MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE DECREASED FROM MEDIUM TO HIGH (40%
TO 60%) TO LOW (15% TO 25%) BY TUESDAY EVENING AND LOCATED OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL
INTO THE 60S F, MID TO UPPER 50S F MARFA PLATEAU AND NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY, AND LOWER 70S F ALONG RIO GRANDE, AS CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER AIR PATTERN STAYS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
US AND RIDGING OVER WESTERN US, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DOWN INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP THE LIFT
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK, BEFORE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING OVER SE NM AND FAR W
TX AGAIN INTERACTS WITH HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN AND TERRAIN
INDUCED CIRCULATIONS TO GENERATE LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN, EXPANDING AREAWIDE NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
RIPPLE THROUGH WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE RIDGING
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING TREND FOR THIS WEEK INDICATED IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAS NOTABLY LESSENED. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE. WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND,
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S F, LOWER TO MID 80S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND MID TO UPPER 90S F PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND
WILL OCCUR, WITH HIGHS WARMING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND PEAKING
THURSDAY, DESPITE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS MINIMIZING TRANSPORT
OF WARMER OR COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LOWER THAN LAST WEEK, LARGELY BELOW 60S F
AND INTO THE LOWER 50S F WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN, SO LESS HUMID
WEATHER IS STILL IN STORE THIS WEEK. LOWS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S F,
50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND LOWER 70S F WILL UNDERGO A WARMING
TREND INTO LATE WEEK SIMILAR TO HIGHS. HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS WEEK, HERALDING
RETURN OF A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. BY NEXT WEEKEND, UNCERTAINTY
IN RAIN PROBABILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES, SO LOCATION,
TIMING, AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY IMPACTFUL RAINFALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE LOW CONFIDENCE. CNM HOB, AND INK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE ANY IMPACTS LATER. MAF AND PEQ MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT MOST THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. FST IS
THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE IMPACTS, BUT TIMING VARIES GREATLY
BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES, CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 68 89 66 93 / 30 20 0 0
CARLSBAD 66 86 65 90 / 50 30 10 10
DRYDEN 71 87 69 92 / 60 50 20 10
FORT STOCKTON 66 84 64 89 / 60 50 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 61 77 62 81 / 50 40 10 10
HOBBS 63 86 63 89 / 40 20 10 10
MARFA 60 76 56 81 / 40 60 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 89 67 92 / 30 20 0 0
ODESSA 68 87 66 91 / 30 20 10 0
WINK 67 87 64 91 / 40 30 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91
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