905
FXUS64 KMAF 010639
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
139 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
- MODERATE (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE BIG BEND, TERRELL
COUNTY, AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH GREATLY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THE REST OF
THIS WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED TODAY, GRADUALLY
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS PAST EVENING IS
DIMINISHING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
YESTERDAY REPRESENTED THE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS MUCH
MORE BENIGN. THIS WEEKEND'S BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED BEYOND THE AREA,
WHICH MEANS VERY LITTLE FORCING IS LEFT TO ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS, COUPLED WITH THE BEGINNING OF A GENERAL DRYING
TREND, MEANS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIMITED TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES (30-50%) WILL MAINLY BE FOUND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-10 (THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BIG BEND, AND
EAST TOWARDS TERRELL COUNTY), MAINLY DUE TO TERRAIN FORCING AND
RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO THE DECAYING BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE.
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY ARE PRETTY MUCH NIL AREAWIDE AS OUR DRYING
TREND CONTINUES AND FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE UNDER
NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES MONDAY LOOK
SEASONABLE (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, LOWS IN THE 60S). BY
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY 2-4 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION, THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FORECAST ALSO
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS DROP CLOSER TO (OR JUST
BELOW) SEASONAL NORMS. BY THE WEEKEND, A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT DOWN. THIS
FRONT, THOUGH IT WILL SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES, IS FORECAST
TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES (HIGHS
NEAR 90 DEGREES AT KMAF), AND ALSO BRING AT LEAST LOW (10-30%) RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
TS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH VFR RETURNING AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 90 66 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 89 66 91 65 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 87 68 92 68 / 40 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 87 64 90 65 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 79 63 82 64 / 20 0 10 0
HOBBS 88 64 90 62 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 79 56 82 56 / 40 0 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 67 93 66 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 89 67 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 90 65 92 65 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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