761
FXUS64 KMAF 021059
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
559 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-35%) RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. MAF'S 00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A PWAT OF 0.95 INCHES, SIGNIFYING THE BEGINNING OF A
DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL STAY UNDER NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF RIDGING TO THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING AND DECREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, RAIN CHANCES ARE NIL
TODAY AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, WITH THE FRONT CLEAR OF OUR AREA AND
THICKNESSES INCREASING, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (80S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THOUGH ANOTHER SHOT AT COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE BY THE WEEKEND.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEARLY 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
THAT IS A SOLID 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE HOT, ALBEIT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THINGS START TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT MORE INTERESTING. MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN
THE PACIFIC WILL CUT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO OUR AREA, SUPPLYING
MUCH BETTER MOISTURE TO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR DIRECTION. VORTICITY FROM THE POST-
TROPICAL SYSTEM, LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT, AND INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL ENCOURAGE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (10-35%), ALONG WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THE WEEKEND, SOME DIVERGENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS EXISTS. THE GFS SUGGESTS HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT, WHILE THE EUROPEAN KEEPS MORE FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES AROUND A BIT LONGER AS RIDGING SETS UP
FARTHER WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE THINGS TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 93 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 92 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 93 69 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 66 93 67 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 83 64 85 66 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 91 61 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 83 56 86 57 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 67 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 93 66 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 93 65 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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