283
FXUS64 KMAF 030756
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 255 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
- MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-40%) RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE QUIET. WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO STAY DRY UNDER NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THAT AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING, RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN NEAR-ZERO TODAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, ATMOSPHERIC
THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS DISPLACED
FARTHER TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT, HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE REGION (80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN), WHILE LOWS
IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
90S AND NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS IT
STILL APPEARS SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
THE REMNANTS OF A PRESENTLY-DEVELOPING TROPICAL ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CUT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SUPPLY
MORE MOISTURE AND VORTICITY/LIFT TO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S (COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA). RAIN CHANCES ALSO
BEGIN INCREASING BY THIS TIME, WITH LOW POPS (10-25%) RETURNING TO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. BY FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AS WELL, SUPPLYING YET ANOTHER
SOURCE OF LIFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT (PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER
REINFORCING BOUNDARIES), AMPLE MOISTURE, AND VORTICITY FROM THE
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING (10-40%). ONE THING THAT SHOULD BE
NOTED IS THAT FRONTAL POSITIONING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME - LOCATIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT WOULD HAVE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES, BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE ON WHERE
EXACTLY IT SETS UP/STALLS (IF IT DOES NOT GET COMPLETELY PUSHED
OUT OF THE AREA). NATURALLY, WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS,
AS A STALLED FRONT CAN BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS
(ESPECIALLY WHEN PAIRED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE). IN ANY CASE,
HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO- MID 90S BACK
TO THE AREA.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)12
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 93 69 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 93 68 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 96 69 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 92 68 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 84 67 86 64 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 91 67 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 85 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 71 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 92 70 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 93 67 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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