479
FXUS64 KMAF 091709
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1159 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<=20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ~ 3-5 F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-30%) WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SIT JUST WEST OF THE REGION IN
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS INCH ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS(10-20%).
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECAY TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MODEST WINDS, TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
WITH 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST ONCE AGAIN AND
RAIN CHANCES FALL BELOW 5% AREAWIDE.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START DEVELOPING EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, COURTESY OF AN
INCOMING TROUGH OVER THE PACNW. THE SHUNTING OF THE RIDGE EAST WILL
INITIATE A COOLING TREND FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS
THICKNESSES DECREASE. HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND
4-6 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE OPENING AND EJECTING THE TROUGH POSITIVELY UP
INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NET EFFECT OF
THIS WILL BE TO SHUNT THE RIDGE EAST, AND THEN SOUTH INTO MEXICO,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW WHAT'S EXPECTED THURSDAY. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.
LOWS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BUMP ALONG ~ 2-6 F ABOVE NORMAL, COURTESY
OF A 30 KT LLJ DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED LOOK SLIM-TO-NONE UNDER THE RIDGE.
GRIDS STAY DRY UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST
SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF LOOKS
NEGLIGIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL
DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEREFORE, TS PROB30
FOR CNM WAS IMPLEMENTED FROM 20Z-01Z. HOB WAS NOT INCLUDED DUE TO
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME (22Z-03Z).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 93 65 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 96 65 94 64 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 90 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 93 65 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 87 65 86 63 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 92 62 91 60 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 88 56 87 54 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 93 65 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 91 65 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 93 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...11
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