190
FXUS64 KMAF 092326
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BEING STILL ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE, THIS WILL SHIFT MUCH OF THE
REGION TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT IS GOING TO AID IN ASCENT AND MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE ALSO HAS SURFACE TROUGHING SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY PROVIDING ANOTHER SOURCE OF ASCENT. CAMS ARE COMING TO
MORE OF AN AGREEMENT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW "INVERTED-
V" PROFILES AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES SIGNALING A MICROBURST POTENTIAL
WITH THE STRONGEST STORM. LOW SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORMS TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES, THUS, THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
REGIONWIDE.
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-ZERO POPS ARE IN
STORE AREAWIDE, THANKS TO INCREASING THICKNESSES AND SUBSIDENCE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPAN IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S,
BESIDES A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO PUSH THE RIDGE
FARTHER EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE GRADUAL DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE, TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ONWARDS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER SYSTEMS OR FRONTS IN SIGHT.
THOUGH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THEY STILL REMAIN ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS AT
MAF ARE TYPICALLY AROUND 88-86 THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND LOWS AVERAGE
NEAR 66-64). RAIN CHANCES ALSO REMAIN LOW GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING (TROUGHING TENDS TO REMAIN TOO FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD TO HAVE MUCH AN IMPACT ON OUR
AREA). NEVERTHELESS, WEAK PULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY/QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS (10-30%). IN ANY CASE, THE LONG
TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY OVERALL.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY (EASTERLY AT
PEQ) WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 65 95 64 93 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 67 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 65 94 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 65 87 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 62 92 61 90 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 56 87 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 65 92 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 65 94 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
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